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Post Info TOPIC: News - BT
KK


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News - BT


12 May 07

Liquidity expected to fuel M'sian stock rally

Bourse may hit target of 1,500 or 18-19 times this year's earnings

DESPITE the Malaysian stock market surpassing its all-time high of 1,330 last month, it looks as if the huge supply of money looking for a home will bring a further stock market push in the second half of the year.

Local stockbroking firm OSK says that although the market might be going through a consolidation phase after rising more than 22 per cent this year, it is confident that the ingredients are there for a spirited rally in the second half. This could take the 'liquidity induced' bourse to a target of 1,500 or 18-19 times this year's earnings, says head of research Kenny Yee.

Already, a portion of global liquidity has flowed into Malaysia on the back of expectations that the ringgit will continue to perform. In the space of only four months, Bank Negara's reserves have risen by US$9 billion, hitting a record of US$91.6 billion at the end of April.

The frenetic pace of mergers and acquisitions shows no sign of letting up after beginning in earnest last year. In the past 12 months, RM73 billion (S$32.5 billion) worth of deals to take companies private have been announced, and CIMB chief executive Nazir Razak expects a tripling of last year's RM33 billion worth of mergers to hit RM107 billion this year.

Other market catalysts include recent moves to further liberalise the equities market as seen in the government's removal of the 25 per cent cap on foreign shareholding in state-owned utility Tenaga Nasional.

Malaysia's 1.2 million civil servants will also have more money in their pockets after the government agreed to a pay rise, the level of which has yet to be announced.
Mr Yee thinks the huge build-up in household funds could potentially have the biggest impact onthe market. As at end-March, banks' total outstanding fixed deposits by individuals stood at RM220 billion. Money supply data indicates that insignificant amounts of funds have gone into the stock market from people's personal accounts since the end of March.

Indeed market volume has been on the decline, averaging slightly over a billion trades daily compared to a peak of over 4 billion just prior to the Shanghai stock exchange meltdown at the end of February.

'Assuming that households move some portion of their savings to participate in the current rally - a potential RM27 billion could flood the equity market,' Mr Yee said, adding that the impact on the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index would be significant.

But Alliance group head of research Wong Chee Seng believes the market to be fairly valued at its current 16-17 times earnings.

Although the local bourse was trading at a 20 to 30 per cent premium to regional markets in the early to mid-90s, it was easier to justify the premium given growth was stronger at 8-9 per cent, he said.

The ringgit's gain of 3.5 per cent this year to about 3.4 to the US dollar is also hurting exports, he observed, putting the local unit's value at 3.45 to 3.50.

Others worry about the longer term effects flowing from the recent rash of privatisation and delisting exercises, especially those involving blue chip favourites such as Maxis Communications.

A trend to impose bumiputera equity requirements - local banks Maybank and Ambank recently insisting then backed down from internal guidelines that law firms servicing them ought to have bumiputera partners. Outstanding religious tussles do not bode well for long-term local and foreign investments, said an institutional dealer who declined to be named. An international inter-faith dialogue to be held in Kuala Lumpur this week was inexplicably cancelled by the government at the 11th hour without giving reasons.



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KK


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19-Apr-2007

More M'sian companies rewarding shareholders

Tenaga joins growing list of companies giving higher payouts


AT the close of trading on Monday, power utility
Tenaga Nasional promised that from financial year 2007, it would adopt a policy of paying 40-60 per cent of its free cash flow back to shareholders. That means the utility could be paying out as much as RM0.40 and more a share from this year on. With the announcement, the state-owned utility joins a growing list of Malaysian companies which are aggressively managing their capital resources and pushing to reward shareholders through higher returns on equity. They are doing this through higher dividend policies, capital repayments and aggressive share buybacks and, in some cases, all of the above.

And they are doing it because they can. Corporate balance sheets have never been stronger, says Niklas Olausson, the research head of CLSA in Kuala Lumpur. And there has been a gradual decrease in gearing in recent years.

Higher payouts are a new trend in Malaysia with investors previously having to be satisfied with share price gains. Indeed, companies that did pay generous dividends were the foreign-controlled ones. Conglomerates like Nestle, Dutch Lady and British American-Tobacco routinely paid hefty dividends as a way to repatriate profits, a standard operating procedure that continues to this day. All this changed after the Asian financial crisis when many companies had to cut capital expenditure and debt.

The restructuring paid off and with a buoyant economy, the companies slowly began amassing cash hoards which, in the face of not many alternatives, they began paying out. More strikingly, other firms did so because of perceived corporate governance problems.

Consider Berjaya Sports Toto, a gaming company once dogged by negative publicity and now re-invented to become the bellwether of dividend policy on the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange. Indeed, the company's fortunes could epitomise the virtues of rewarding shareholders. Between 1998 and 2000, BToto lent RM1.1 billion (S$484 million) to its parent BLand but the information was only disclosed in late 2001. The loans initially were intended as a way for Malaysian tycoon Vincent Tan, who controls both companies through his Berjaya group holding company, to keep BLand afloat in the wake of the Asian crisis. But investors believed that the cash-flush BToto was acting as financier to Mr Tan's other units and sold down the stock so hastily that it dropped over 70 per cent to below RM3 apiece in 2003. Mr Tan has since promised to pay over 70 per cent of earnings to shareholders and pare debt. The latter would be a logical outcome of the former as BLand was the largest shareholder of BToto.

Over the last four years, BToto has paid out more to shareholders and the debt has been reduced by over 90 per cent. An institutional favourite, BToto has now become what's known as a defensive stock with relatively steady prices even during sell-downs. Indeed, with one of the highest yields on the local bourse (see chart), BToto may have become a metaphor for corporate rebirth.

For example, when news began swirling that Magnum, another cash rich gaming company that isn't a market favourite, would make a substantial capital repayment soon, brokers said that it might do a BToto. Stories like Magnum which issued a qualified denial on the subject though aren't unique.

By its own admission, Bursa Malaysia is mulling over a capital repayment, while telecom firm Digi.com and Public Bank are said to be considering bumper dividends this year.

Meanwhile, cement firm Ta Ann is sitting on large cash reserves with steady profitability and no capital expenditure requirements. This is another shoo-in for a big payout, according to analysts.

Companies like Tenaga are the new focus now. After three years of prodding, government linked companies are beginning to meet key performance indicators mandated for them by the administration of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Given that a general election is likely next year, some analysts believe that GLCs like Maybank, Sime Darby and investment bank CIMB could raise their payouts so that the government can use the dividends in pump priming exercises calculated to be popular.

Cumulatively, the trend of aggressive capital management may have changed the perception of Kuala Lumpur's bourse forever. Now it's plugged as a defensive market and, at 6 plus per cent, it is fast becoming one of the better yield plays in the region.

BT_6068378_19_04_2007.jpg



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