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RE: US Market


Extracted from Standard & Poors' Market Snapshot

Stocks Jump on Deals, Retail Sales

Dow Jones Industrials
NASDAQ Composite
S&P 500
Updated: Monday April 16, 2007 (02:42 PM EDT)

Takeover news and a strong reading on retail sales, plus earnings from Citigroup help lure buyers

Stocks moved up Monday on takeover news, with Google (GOOG) inking a deal to buy DoubleClick, and a strong reading on retail sales. Better-than-expected earnings from Citigroup (C) also lured buyers.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 87.52 points, or 0.69%, to 12,699.81. The broader Standard&Poor's 500 index was up 12.58 points, or 0.87%, to 1,465.35. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite gained 18.96 points, or 0.8%, to 2,511.8.

In economic news, March retail sales surged 0.7% overall, and 0.8% excluding autos in March. Those follow big upward revisions to February, with the overall gain now at 0.5% vs. 0.1% previously; the ex-auto componenet was boosted to a 0.4% increase from -0.1% previously. "The data are good news for the economy, and should support the dollar and stocks, but should weigh on bonds," says Action Economics.

The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 3.8 in April as business activity improved slightly after the index tumbled over 22 points to 1.85 in March.

And U.S. business inventories rose 0.3% in February from a 0.2% increase in January. Sales were up 0.4%, rebounding from a revised -0.9% (-0.7% previously). The inventory-sales ratio was steady at 1.29 (February's 1.30 was revised down), reports Action Economics.

Deals continued to be a driving factor for stocks on Monday. Google (GOOG) says it will acquire DoubleClick for $3.1 billion in cash from the San Francisco-based private equity firm Hellman&Friedman along with JMI Equity and management.

Aquantive (AQNT) shares shot up on news of Google's purchase of DoubleClick and analyst upgrades. ValueClick (VCLK) was also higher.

SLM Corp. (SLM) agreed to be acquired by an investor group led by J.C. Flowers&Co. for $60 cash per share, or $25 billion. When the deal is done, J.C. Flowers and Friedman Fleischer&Lowe will own 50.2% of the college lender, while Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) will each own 24.9%.

Innkeepers USA (KPA) agreed to be acquired by an affiliate of Apollo Investment Corp. for $17.75 per share, or $1.5 billion.

Fremont General (FMT) inked a deal to sell about $2.9 billion of its subprime residential real estate loans. Also inks exclusive talks with same institution under executed letter of intent to sell most of its residential real estate business and assets.

In earnings news, Citigroup (C) reported better than expected first-quarter earnings per share from continuing operations of $1.01, vs. $1.12 a year ago, with a 15% rise in revenue. It noted the first quarter EPS included a previously disclosed $1.38 billion charge related to structural expense review conducted during the period.

Wachovia (WB) also had strong results, with first-quarter EPS (GAAP) rising to $1.20, from $1.09 a year ago, on a 17% revenue rise.

Eli Lilly (LLY) reported results and raised its high single-digit to low double-digit '07 sales groth guidance to low double-digits, and $3.25-$3.35 adjusted EPS to $3.30-$3.40.

In the energy markets, May NYMEX crude oil fell about $1 to $62.50 a barrel on profit taking.

European stock markets were trading higher Monday. In London, the FTSE-100 index rose 36.4 points, or 0.56%, to 6,498.8. Germany's DAX index gained 76.62 points, or 1.06%, to 7,288.69. In Paris, the CAC 40 index was up 43.52 points, or 0.75%, to 5,832.86.

Asian markets finished with strong gains. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index climbed 264.35 points, or 1.52%, to 17,628.3. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index jumped 416.56 points, or 2.05%, to 20,757.53.

Treasury Market

Treasury yields fell following the surprise drop in the NAHB housing market index, which posted the lowest reading since December, 2006. The 10-year yield reversed back down to 4.735% from 4.75%, says Action Economics


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Extracted from Standard & Poor's Market Snapshot

Updated: Friday April 13, 2007 (05:36 PM EDT)

A positive profit outlook from Merck and some takeover talk about SLM help push up the major indexes, while the PPI rose and consumer sentiment fell

After a see-saw session, stocks finished higher Friday as investors poured over producer price index numbers, an improved U.S. trade deficit, and a drop in consumer sentiment. Investors were also gearing up for Monday's report on retail sales and next week's heavy dose of first-quarter earnings results.

Among the highlights Friday: Merck's (MRK) higher earnings guidance provided a boost to the Dow industrials, says S&P. The Nasdaq was hurt by weakness in Apple (AAPL) after it announced a delay in the release of its Leopard operating system. On the deal front, there are reports that college lender SLM Corp. (SLM) could be a takeover target.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 59.17 points, or 0.47%, to 12,612.13. The broader Standard&Poor's 500 index was up 5.05 points, or 0.35%, to 1,452.85. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite gained 11.62 points, or 0.47%, to 2,491.94.

Kicking off next week's busy calendar is Monday's release of March retail sales, which is expected to rise 0.5% (and sales excluding autos is seen up 0.8%). Autos will be a drag, while gasoline prices should provide a big boost, says Action Economics. Chain store sales were stronger-than-expected in March, as the earlier shift in Easter this year and unusually warm weather boosted spring sales, says Action Economics. But the big wild-card is building materials and other housing-related components, says Action Economics. Also coming out Monday are business inventories and the April Empire State index. In economic news Friday, the producer price index (PPI) rose more than expected, by 1.0% in March, while the core index (excluding food and energy) was flat -- lower than expected. That follows a 1.3% headline increase in February and a 0.4% rise in the core. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI is up a hefty 3.2% after a 2.5% pace in February, while the core rate slowed a touch to 1.7% from 1.8%.

The U.S. February trade deficit narrowed 0.7% to $58.4 billion following a revised $58.9 billion in January. That's better than the market expected. Imports fell another 1.7%, while exports fell 2.2%. The narrowing in the deficit could give a boost to first-quartet GDP estimates, says Action Economics.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell in April to 85.3 from 88.4 in March, continuing a pattern of receding confidence revealed in other sentiment measures.

Earnings season will also kick into high gear next week. In earnings news Friday, Merck says it expects first-quarter EPS will be 84 cents, excluding restructuring charges, and reported EPS will be 78 cents. The drug maker raised 2007 EPS guidance to $2.75-$2.85, and reported EPS to $2.60-$2.75. The FDA voted against recommending approval of Arcoxiz.

General Electric (GE) posted in line results for first-quarter earnings from continuing operations of 44 cents, vs. 40 cents a year ago, on a 5.7% revenue rise. S&P reiterated a strong buy opinion on the stock.

Apple says it is unable to release Leopard in early June as planned, and expects to ship it in October. However, its iPhone passed several of its required certification tests, and is on schedule to ship in late June as planned.

SLM Corp. is in talks to be bought out by private equity in a deal that could be worth over $20 billion, according to The New York Times.

Morgan Stanley (MS) announced it is buying 13 hotels from Japanese carrier All Nippon Airways Co. for $2.4 billion, which would roughly double the bank's hotels in the country.

In the energy markets, May Nymex crude oil fell 23 cents to $63.62 a barrel in a seesaw session, as gasoline prices pulled back, says Action Economics.

Treasury Market

Treasury prices fell, sending yields clear of the 4.75% top that had haunted the market all week, says Action Economics. Catalyst for trade came from an unlikely source -- the rise in the inflation expectations component of the weaker than expected University of Michigan sentiment report, says Action Economics. This appeared to eclipse the flat core reading on PPI, which initially prompted gains by bonds, says Action Economics.



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tfwee wrote:

FOMC Meeting Schedule (Tentative) for 2007

Earlier today, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released their tentative monetary policy meeting schedule for 2007. The FOMC doesn't always stick to the exact dates on the schedule (hence tentative), but they do always meet at least 8 times per calendar year.

Why is this schedule important to you? Because it is at these monetary policy meetings that The FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to The Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, The Wall Street JournalŪ Prime Rate (also known as the fed, national or U.S. Prime Rate) will also change.

Here's the tentative
schedule for 2007:

January 30-31, 2007
March 20-21, 2007
May 9, 2007
June 27-28, 2007
August 7, 2007
September 18, 2007
October 30-31, 2007
December 11, 2007

 



Extracted from Reuters. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday and said it remained concerned about inflation, but dropped its reference to the possibility of pushing rates higher, leaving its options open.The decision by the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee to keep benchmark overnight rates at 5.25 percent, the level they hit in June after 17 straight quarter-percentage point increases, was widely expected.

 

However, in a shift that markets saw as evidence that the Fed is no longer leaning toward higher rates, officials said that "future policy adjustments would depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth."

That marked a change from January, when the Fed had said "the extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed" would depend on the outlook.

"It was certainly less hawkish than before, although they still have the balance of risks tilted toward inflation rather than growth," said Jim O'Sullivan, an economist with UBS in Stamford, Connecticut. "It is not quite a neutral statement, but it is a big step in that direction."

Financial markets took the new language as opening the door to lower interest rates.

U.S. stock prices jumped higher and the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average closed up 159 points. At the same time, the dollar hit a two-year low against the euro, and bond prices rallied, with yields on short-dated maturities dropping below yields on longer-dated issues for the first time since August.

"The move in the yield curve suggests a fast-forwarding of rate cut possibilities," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist with Miller, Tabak & Co. in New York.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures prices moved to show a 48 percent chance of a rate cut by the end of June, up from a 26 percent chance before the Fed's announcement.

UNEVEN GROWTH

In a statement outlining its decision, the Fed acknowledged recent signs of uneven economic growth and weakness in the housing sector, but expressed continued faith that the economy was fundamentally sound.

"Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing," the Fed said. "Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters."

At the same time, the Fed made clear it was still worried about inflation. "The committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected," it said.

At its previous meeting in January, the central bank had said growth was looking "somewhat firmer." Since then, however, a jump in default rates for mortgages held by less-creditworthy borrowers has sparked worry that mainstream lenders might start also be affected and that it might become more difficult for households and businesses to borrow.

Beyond the subprime sector, there has been little to support the view that housing markets were stabilizing, as the Fed had believed.

A report three weeks ago showed sales of new homes had tumbled almost 17 percent in January, the largest slide in 13 years, while data this week showed that permits for future home building fell in February.

Meanwhile, a sharp sell-off of U.S. stocks late last month added to worries that consumers, already feeling pinched by stagnating or falling home values, might rein in spending, putting an additional drag on the economy.

But against this evidence of weaker growth, there has been scant reassurance inflation was moderating as the central bank had hoped.

The 12-month change in the so-called PCE price index, the inflation measure preferred by Fed policy-makers, moved up to 2.3 percent in January from 2.2 percent in December, above the 1 percent to 2 percent comfort zone of many officials.

 



-- Edited by tfwee at 10:50, 2007-03-22

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FOMC Meeting Schedule (Tentative) for 2007

Earlier today, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released their tentative monetary policy meeting schedule for 2007. The FOMC doesn't always stick to the exact dates on the schedule (hence tentative), but they do always meet at least 8 times per calendar year.

Why is this schedule important to you? Because it is at these monetary policy meetings that The FOMC votes on whether to raise, lower or make no changes to The Fed Funds Target Rate, and when the Fed Funds Target Rate changes, The Wall Street JournalŪ Prime Rate (also known as the fed, national or U.S. Prime Rate) will also change.

Here's the tentative
schedule for 2007:

January 30-31, 2007
March 20-21, 2007
May 9, 2007
June 27-28, 2007
August 7, 2007
September 18, 2007
October 30-31, 2007
December 11, 2007

 



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Extracted From OCBC Research Market Commentary

This is Fed watching week, and increasingly there is a higher probability that the US Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates due to concerns over mortgage defaults. Based on a Bloomberg report, there is a 24% likelihood that the central bank will cut rate this year from the current 5.25% to
4.5%,
based on options on Federal Fund futures at the Chicago Board of Trade. Meanwhile, for the upcoming March 21 meeting this week, most economists are expecting that the Fed will hold interest rates at 5.25%, based on a survey by Bloomberg. The Fed has kept rate at 5.25% at the last five meetings.


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U.S. Stocks Plunge; China Triggers Global Rout; Treasuries Jump

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks plunged, wiping out about $600 billion in market value and erasing all of 2007's gains, after a selloff in China spread and sparked the biggest rout in four years. Treasuries had the biggest jump since December 2004.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 546 points, the most since the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. All but two companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined.

The plunge in China ``exposed the fact that there are problems developing,'' said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with George Soros in the 1970s. ``When you have major stock declines, they always start in marginal countries, sectors and companies.''

The Dow average sank 416.02, or 3.3 percent, to 12,216.24. The S&P 500 retreated 50.33, or 3.5 percent, to 1399.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 96.66, or 3.9 percent, to 2407.86.

``This is a fairly violent selloff,'' said Russ Koesterich, a portfolio manager at Barclays Global Investors in San Francisco, which has $1.7 trillion in assets.

Treasuries

Treasuries climbed as the rout in stocks and global bonds bolstered demand for the safest debt.
Yields on benchmark 10-year notes fell to the lowest since December as the plunge in Chinese shares set off concern investors will shy away from riskier assets. Two-year notes gained the most since August 2004. Delinquencies and defaults on bonds backed by mortgage loans to people with poor credit histories helped fuel the rally in Treasuries.

``A flight to quality and fear in the risk markets are propping up government markets,'' said George Goncalves, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Banc of America Securities LLC, one of the 21 primary dealers required to participate in Treasury auctions.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell more than 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 4.51 percent, according to New York-based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. It was the biggest drop since Dec. 3, 2004, when employment growth slowed. The yield touched 4.4485 percent, the lowest since Dec. 6, 2006.

Emerging Markets

Emerging-market bonds and currencies fell as the tumble in Chinese stocks curbed investor demand for riskier assets.
The average spread for emerging-market bonds over U.S. Treasuries rose to the highest since Dec. 7 after China's main stock market index sank 9.2 percent, the biggest drop in a decade. Brazil's real, Turkey's lira and the South African rand led a slump in developing-nation currencies.

``It started off with China and then with U.S. stocks, which is leading to risk-averse behavior,'' said Matias Silvani, who helps manage $4.7 billion of emerging-market debt at JPMorgan Asset Management in New York. ``In times like these, correlation across markets increases.''

Emerging-market bond yield spreads surged 17 basis points to 1.89 percentage points, leaving them up 25 basis points from a record low of 1.64 points on Feb. 22, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI Plus index. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Brazil's real fell 1.8 percent to 2.1197 per dollar from 2.0825 reais per dollar yesterday. Turkey's lira sank 1.8 percent to 1.4097 per dollar and the South African rand dropped 2.2 percent to 7.2337 per dollar.

The yen rose the most in more than 19 months against the dollar as investors shunned emerging-market assets and U.S. equities dropped, prompting an unwinding of trades betting on a decline in the Japanese currency.

Oil Climbs

Crude oil rose to the highest close this year on speculation U.S. fuel inventories declined because refineries are repairing units.

Gasoline supplies fell 1.5 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 23, according to the median of forecasts by 15 analysts before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, dropped 2.6 million barrels. In February and March refiners perform maintenance and start maximizing gasoline output.

Crude oil for April delivery rose 7 cents to $61.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since Dec. 22. Futures touched $62.25, the highest intraday price since Dec. 26. Prices are up 0.8 percent from a year ago.

Gold prices dropped as the plunge in equities prompted investors to bail out of precious metals.


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Dow Average Sets Record as U.S. Stocks Rally on Oil's Decline

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record, eclipsing its 2000 high, as a two-month descent in oil prices accelerated and improved the outlook for consumer spending.


Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer; Boeing Co., the world's second-biggest maker of commercial aircraft; and United Technologies Corp., the maker of Otis elevators and Carrier air conditioners, led the Dow to a close of 11,727.34.


Stocks started rallying after crude oil fell below $59 a barrel for the first time since February. The 30-stock average surpassed its closing high for the fourth consecutive day and withstood a late retreat to set the record.


The Dow climbed 56.99, or 0.5 percent, in exceeding its peak of 11,722.98 on Jan. 14, 2000. The record followed the best third quarter since 1995 for the average, which includes many of the biggest U.S. companies by market value, as the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates.


``You couldn't give away these companies,'' said Brett Gallagher, co-head of global equities at Julius Baer Investment Management in New York, which manages about $40 billion. ``Now we're in a reverse situation where these companies are getting more attention, and I think they deserve it.''


The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 2.79, or 0.2 percent, to 1334.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 6.05, or 0.3 percent, at 2243.65.


Crude Oil Declines


Crude oil for November delivery fell 3.9 percent to $58.68 a barrel in New York, the lowest close since Feb. 16. It was the biggest one-day decline since Aug. 17, 2005.


Lower energy costs give consumers more money to spend, benefiting retailers. Sales at stores open at least a year rose about 4 percent last month, according to a preliminary report from the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities LLC.


Since the last bear market ended four years ago, the Dow has risen 61 percent, led by a near quadrupling in shares of Caterpillar Inc., the biggest maker of earthmoving equipment. Hewlett-Packard Co., the world's No. 2 personal-computer maker, and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-biggest U.S. bank, have tripled.


The 110-year-old Dow industrials lost 38 percent from the previous peak through Oct. 9, 2002, after the Internet-led rally of the late 1990s ended. The index peaked about two months before the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set records.


Dow's Leaders


This year, the Dow came within 81 points of the record in May and tumbled 8 percent in the next month. General Motors Corp. led the measure's rebound by surging 32 percent. Microsoft Corp., the world's No. 1 software maker, had the second-biggest gain, 27 percent. GM and Microsoft were among the seven current Dow stocks that had fallen since the October 2002 nadir through June 13 of this year.


``Now that you have a definitive new all time high, the fact that it is the Dow and the most recognized index, that is the type of thing that will shine the spotlight on the market,'' said Charles Carlson, who oversees $105 million at Horizon Investment Services LLC in Hammond, Indiana, and who wrote ``Winning With the Dow's Losers,'' published in 2004. ``This could get people interested in stocks.''


The S&P 500 must gain 15 percent and the Nasdaq more than double to surpass their March 2000 peaks.


Wal-Mart jumped $1.02 to $49.46. Home Depot Inc., the largest home-improvement retailer, rose 49 cents to $36.83.


Boeing Gains


United Technologies added 90 cents to $64.80.


Boeing increased $1.81 to $81.78. Airbus SAS postponed deliveries of the superjumbo A380 jet for the third time in 16 months. Emirates airline, the largest customer for the jet, said it's reviewing ``all options'' on its 45-plane order.


Ford Motor Co. gained 10 cents to $8.23 after the second- largest U.S. automaker had its first monthly sales increase since January. The company also said it is offering low-interest financing on 2006 and 2007 pickup trucks to spur sales of the models. Sagging truck sales had prompted Ford to cut North American production 16 percent in this year's second half.


Almost 10 stocks rose for every nine that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Some 1.7 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board, 12 percent more than the three-month daily average.


Staples jumped $1.31, or 5.4 percent, to $25.58 for the second-largest advance in the S&P 500. Best Buy Co., the largest U.S. electronics retailer, gained $1.37 to $54.60.


Kohl's Advances


Kohl's Corp. rose $2.04 to $67.53. The low-price department store company reported its largest monthly sales gain in almost four years as sales at stores open at least a year increased 16 percent in the five-week period through Sept. 30. Kohl's also raised its third-quarter profit forecast.


St. Jude Medical Inc., a maker of heart valves and other cardiovascular products, increased $1.21 to $36.59. Merrill Lynch & Co. raised its recommendation to ``buy'' from ``neutral,'' saying the stock's 30 percent decline this year already reflects a ``tough'' market for devices to treat abnormal heart rhythms.


Oil's retreat dragged energy shares lower. Of the 30 energy companies in the S&P 500, 29 declined. The group lost 3.3 percent, the worst performance among the S&P 500's 10 industry measures.


ConocoPhillips, the No. 3 U.S. oil company, slid $2.52 to $56.03 after saying production declined about 5 percent in the latest quarter as pipeline leaks disrupted output from the Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska.


Energy Shares


Energy shares also suffered after Merrill Lynch cut its recommendation on the group, citing falling oil prices and growing inventories. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. also downgraded energy stocks, lowering ratings on so-called ``large- cap'' oil and gas shares.


Quest Diagnostics Inc. plunged $10.90, or 18 percent, to $50 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. The No. 1 U.S. operator of medical-testing laboratories lost a contract with UnitedHealth Group Inc. that accounts for about 7 percent of annual revenue. Laboratory Corp. of America, which won the $3 billion contract over Quest, rose $1.36 to $66.57.


S&P 500 shares, called Spiders, advanced 28 cents to $133.36. Nasdaq-100 tracking shares, known by their QQQQ symbol, gained 17 cents to $40.31.


S&P 500 futures expiring in December rose 2.80 to 1343.20 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Nasdaq-100 Index futures gained 6.25 to 1653.75.


The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for companies with a median market value of $606 million, was little changed at 718.35. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, the broadest measure of U.S. shares, increased 0.1 percent to 13,282.11. Based on its advance, the value of stocks gained by $18.9 billion.



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Extracted from Bloomberg

Americans Want Fed to Stop Raising Interest Rates, Poll Shows
2006-06-28 21:00 (New York)


(For a special report on the poll, see {POLL }).

By Scott Lanman
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The American public has turned
against the Federal Reserve's two-year campaign of interest-rate
increases, concerned it may hurt the economy by slowing growth, a
Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows.
By a 65 percent to 22 percent margin, Americans oppose
another rate increase by the central bank, which says such moves
are necessary to counter inflation. The poll was conducted from
June 24 to June 27, ending two days before the Fed's latest rate
decision, to be announced 2:15 p.m. today in Washington.
Such sentiment won't sway Fed policy makers in the short
term. They're expected by economists to raise the benchmark U.S.
rate a 17th straight time to 5.25 percent, the highest since
March 2001. That may slow the economy by taking more steam out of
the housing market, where Americans are already contending with
rising mortgage rates, some respondents said.
``Anything we could do to not put the brakes on it at this
particular point would be a good thing,'' said Steven March, 35,
a Web designer from Mooresville, North Carolina, and one of the
1,321 people surveyed in the poll. March said he refinanced his
mortgage in February, paying a higher rate than he would have a
couple of years earlier.

Previous Opposition

The Fed has faced public opposition before on interest
rates. Responding to a similar question by the Los Angeles Times
poll in May 2000, after five increases that brought the benchmark
rate to 6 percent, Americans opposed additional credit tightening
by an almost 3-to-1 margin, nearly identical to the current
findings.
The central bank raised the main rate later that month by a
half point to 6.5 percent and left it there until the following
January, when it began a yearlong series of cuts to counter a
recession and the effects of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
Transcripts of Fed interest-rate meetings from 2000, made
public earlier this year, show then-Chairman Alan Greenspan and
other members of the bank's policy committee made hardly any
reference to public opinion as they deliberated. Instead, they
focused on inflation and productivity.
The current cycle of increases began in June 2004, when the
benchmark rate was at a 45-year-low of 1 percent. Today's
increase would be the third under Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who
succeeded Greenspan on Feb. 1. Traders are betting on an 18th
increase at the next meeting on Aug. 8, based on the price of
futures tied to the fed funds rate on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Higher Earners

The Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll found that those who
earn more money were more likely to support raising interest
rates. Among respondents whose household incomes exceed $100,000,
39 percent favored higher rates, while 52 percent were opposed;
for those making $40,000 to $60,000, it was 13 percent in favor
of higher rates and 76 percent opposed. The margin of sampling
error in the poll was plus or minus 3 percentage points for the
entire sample, and from 5 to 7 points for the income subgroups.
Education was also a factor. People with college degrees
were twice as likely -- 35 percent to 17 percent -- as those with
less education to support the Fed raising rates again.
Political affiliation made little difference, though. Among
Democrats, 68 percent were opposed to more rate increases,
compared with 66 percent among Republicans. Sixty-one percent of
independents were against higher rates.
Respondents who described their political ideology as
conservative opposed raising rates by 66 percent to 20 percent.
Liberals ran 67 percent to 25 percent against another rate
increase. People in the middle wanted the Fed to stop by a margin
of 67 percent to 19 percent.

Age Groups

Americans aged 45 to 64 were opposed to a rate increase by a
margin of 70 percent to 18 percent. Among those in the 18-29 and
65-and-older age groups, 59 percent were opposed.
Rose Marie Heater, a retired manager from Quincy,
California, said she supports higher rates because they will
encourage people to save more and use their credit cards less.
``It would slow down some of the spending of the young'' and
make them more responsible over the next 20 years, said Heater,
62, who considers herself a political independent.
The Fed hasn't come under concentrated political criticism
during the current run of rate increases. President George W.
Bush and other administration officials have voiced their support
for Bernanke, and most quibbling from Congress has been mild.

Vocal Critic

Among lawmakers, the most vocal critic of the Fed is Senator
Jim Bunning, a Kentucky Republican who opposed Bernanke's
nomination as chairman and isn't in the chamber's leadership. Two
influential trade groups, the National Association of Realtors
and National Association of Manufacturers, have urged the Fed to
pause.
If public opposition to interest-rate increases persists,
greater political pressure may follow. The Fed is unlikely to
bend to such sentiment unless it's accompanied by evidence of a
sharp economic slowdown, said Greg Valliere, chief political
strategist at Stanford Washington Research Group.
``There's a long history of the Fed being immune to public
pressure,'' Valliere said. If bond investors believed the Fed was
vulnerable to pressure, he said, ``it might cause interest rates
to go up even higher, because the bond market would be very
unforgiving.''
Greenspan's predecessor, Paul Volcker, earned the ire of
politicians when his rate increases helped put the economy into
the 1981-82 recession. Volcker succeeded in ending double-digit
inflation.

Call for Resignation

In January 1982, Jack Kemp, then a Republican representative
from New York, called for Volcker's resignation. Kemp said at the
time that the Fed was ``cheering 8.9 percent unemployment,'' a
New York Times article said.
While Volcker had few friends in the White House, President
Ronald Reagan kept him on for a second term in 1983 partly to
avoid appearing soft on inflation, according to the 2004 book
``Paul Volcker: The Making of a Financial Legend'' by Joseph B.
Treaster.



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CNA, 30 June 2006 0559 hrs

Wall Street buoyed by Fed; Dow surges 1.98%


NEW YORK : US stocks staged a powerful rally on Thursday as the market viewed a reworked Federal Reserve monetary policy statement as signalling an end soon to the two-year cycle of interest rate rises. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 217.24 points (1.98 percent) to 11,190.80 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite jumped 62.54 points (2.96 percent) to 2,174.38. The broad-market Standard and Poor's 500 raced higher by 26.87 points (2.16 percent) to 1,272.87. The market opened higher and accelerated its gains after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made its announcement on interest rates.

The Fed, as expected, boosted its base rate a quarter-point to 5.25 percent, but the accompanying statement offered hints to the market that the central bank was observing a cooling of the economy, and thus may be able to halt its cycle of rate increases.

Patrick Fearon, a senior economist at AG Edwards, said the statement contained "small clues, but I think it's unmistakable that they are getting ever closer to pausing in their cycle of interest rate hikes." Fearon added, "We see some light at the end of the tunnel. It's not guaranteed there won't be another rate hike, but I think most people looking at this action would see the odds of another rate hike are lower." Wells Fargo senior economist Scott Anderson said one reason for the strong reaction was that the statement helped quash expectations of an aggressive half-point increase by the Fed. "I think the statement was not as hawkish on inflation as expected," he said. "They acknowledge that economic growth is moderating." Andrew Busch at BMO Nesbitt Burns said financial markets abruptly shifted their forecasts. "Prior to the announcement, (the futures) market priced in a 60 percent chance of another 25 basis point hike for the August 8 meeting and essentially none for September 20. Afterwards, the expectations for August quickly dropped to less than 50 percent," he said.

Earlier, the Commerce Department said the US economy expanded at a 5.6 percent pace in the first quarter, better than the prior estimate of 5.3 percent. While this was discounted by the market as "old news," the report contained signs of easing inflationary pressures, analysts said.

On the stocks front, Boeing rose 36 cents to 83.00 dollars, shaking off early weakness after the aeronautics giant said it would take about one billion dollars in charges in the second quarter for delays on a surveillance programme for Australia and Turkey and a tentative legal settlement with the US government. Google jumped 11.70 to 417.81. The US Internet powerhouse late Wednesday launched an online payment system in the United States that analysts said could break PayPal's stranglehold on the market. Walt Disney added 50 cents to 29.88 after the media-entertainment group announced John Pepper, a former Procter and Gamble chief executive, was elected as non-executive board chairman. US traded shares of BP advanced 1.28 to 69.25, reversing earlier losses, after the British energy giant was charged by the US Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with cornering and manipulating the US market for propane heating gas. BP denied the allegations. Fast-food restaurant chain McDonald's climbed 1.59 to 33.56 on a Merrill Lynch upgrade.

US bonds rallied as the Fed statement reassured the market on inflation. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 5.200 percent from 5.245 percent Wednesday and that on the 30-year bond dropped to 5.251 percent against 5.279 percent. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. - AFP/de



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U.S. Stocks Extend October Slump as Technology Shares Decline

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks failed to escape their October slump as a disappointing forecast from Texas Instruments Inc. and this month's biggest jump in oil prices hurt the market. Technology shares paced the decline along with retailers, brought down by an unexpected drop in consumer confidence to a two-year low. ``I don't think we're going to get out of this malaise for a while,'' said Michael Vogelzang, who oversees $4.3 billion as president and chief investment officer at Boston Advisors Inc. in Boston. ``There's been nothing terribly dynamic from earnings and we're seeing a lot of pressure on the consumer as we head into the holiday season.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.84, or 0.2 percent, to 1196.54. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which gets two-fifths of its value from computer-related shares, lost 6.38, or 0.3 percent, to 2109.45. A gain in DuPont Co., which announced a $5 billion stock buyback, kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average from falling further. The measure slipped 7.13, or 0.1 percent, to 10,377.87.

October Performance

In the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has tried to sustain an advance from near its low for the month on three occasions and failed on each attempt. The benchmark has been unable to post more than two straight days of gains in October because of lingering concern that inflation and rising interest rates will slow the economy and earnings growth next year.

The market yesterday had its broadest advance in 14 months after President George W. Bush named his chief economist, Ben Bernanke, to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and American Express Co. reported better-than-expected results. The S&P 500 and Dow average posted their biggest gains since April. The S&P 500 is down 2.6 percent in October, putting it on pace for the worst monthly performance since July 2004. ``The short-term sentiment before yesterday was significantly negative, so a little bit of good news -- Bernanke and all that -- gave the market a reason to pop,'' said Vogelzang. ``But all the usual fears'' such as rising interest rates and inflation ``are going to keep a lid on this market for the rest of the year.''

Today, two stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Some 1.72 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board, 10 percent more than the three-month average.

Texas Instruments

Texas Instruments, the world's No. 1 maker of mobile-phone processors, lost $2.37 to $28.55 and was the top contributor to the S&P 500's retreat. Profit excluding some costs will be 39 cents to 43 cents this quarter, compared with a 41-cent average analyst estimate from Thomson Financial. Sales will be $3.43 billion to $3.72 billion. Analysts predicted $3.63 billion. Chief Financial Officer Kevin March said the company may not have enough inventory if sales accelerate. That may limit sales during the holiday buying season, the busiest period for consumer-electronics makers and retailers.

Technology shares fell 0.7 percent as a group and were the biggest contributor to the S&P 500's loss. Altera Corp., the world's No. 2 maker of programmable semiconductors, slumped $1.30 to $16.43. The company said fourth-quarter sales will be unchanged from the $291.5 million in the previous period. Analysts expected revenue of $302.1 million, according to a Thomson survey. Earnings growth at S&P 500 companies will probably reach 11 percent this year and slow to 6.6 percent in 2006, according to Thomson.

Energy Prices

High energy prices are also leaving people with less to spend. Crude oil for December delivery climbed 3.5 percent to $62.44 a barrel in New York, the biggest gain since Sept. 19, on signs that U.S. fuel consumption will increase. Prices reached a record $70.85 in August. ``Oil is definitely going to be a factor'' if the market is to sustain a rally, said Neil Massa, a trader at John Hancock Advisers Inc. in Boston. ``You want it to see it go below $60, but it is going kicking and screaming on its way down.''

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 85 this month, a two-year low, from 87.5 in September. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey expected a reading of 88. Another confidence measure from the University of Michigan is scheduled for release on Oct. 28. A gauge of companies that sell mainly to consumers had the steepest drop among the S&P 500's 10 groups, falling 0.8 percent. RadioShack Corp., the third-largest U.S. electronics chain, retreated 74 cents to $22.28.

Amazon.com Tumbles

Amazon.com Inc. tumbled $3.27 to $42.90 in extended trading. After the market's close, the world's largest online retailer cut its full-year earnings forecast. The company said operating income will be between $403 million and $478 million, lower than its July prediction of $415 million to $515 million. Amazon.com shares slipped 76 cents to $46.17 in regular trading.

EBay Inc., the world's largest Internet auctioneer, slid $1.41 to $38.01. Google Inc., the world's most-used search engine, is testing a service that may let users sell products online, posing a threat to EBay. Bear Stearns Cos. analyst Robert Peck said in a note that Google has been testing a Web site that looked like an on online marketplace, similar to that of EBay's. Google, the world's most-used Internet search engine, slipped $1.74 to $346.91. ``We are testing new ways for content owners to easily send their content to Google,'' company spokeswoman Eileen Rodriguez said in an e-mail statement. ``We're continually exploring new opportunities to expand our offerings.''

Energy Shares

The rally in oil prices helped send a gauge of energy stocks up 1.9 percent for the biggest gain in the S&P 500 among 10 industry groups. The measure, the best performer in the benchmark this year, has retreated 9.2 percent this month. Nabors Industries Ltd., the world's largest onshore oil and natural-gas driller climbed $3.75 to $67.15. The company yesterday said third-quarter profit more than doubled and it plans a New York Stock Exchange listing.

The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for companies with a median market value of $563 million, dropped 0.6 percent to 642.73. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, the broadest measure of U.S. shares, retreated 29.56, or 0.3 percent, to 11,945.29. Based on the changes in the Wilshire, the value of stocks decreased by $37 billion.



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U.S. Stocks Have Broadest Rally in 14 Months on Earnings, Fed

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks had their broadest advance in more than a year after American Express Co.'s earnings beat estimates and President George W. Bush named his chief economist, Ben Bernanke, as the next Federal Reserve chairman. ``It's a bit of a relief that earnings have been coming along pretty nicely, and the Fed announcement wasn't unexpected,'' said Richard Sichel, who oversees $1.5 billion as chief investment officer of Philadelphia Trust Co. ``That's a great excuse to rally.''

Takeover prospects also helped boost the market. Computer Sciences Corp. climbed after a report that buyout firms bid jointly for the company. Albertson's Inc. gained after two groups of private-equity firms and Kroger Co. made offers.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 19.79, or 1.7 percent, to 1199.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 169.78, or 1.7 percent, to 10,385. Both measures had their best performance since April 21. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 33.62, or 1.6 percent, at 2115.83. Almost 13 stocks rose for every two that fell on the Big Board, the highest ratio since Aug. 16, 2004. All 24 industry groups in the S&P 500 rose except commercial services, which dropped after Cendant Corp. cut its earnings forecast and disclosed plans to split into four companies. Some 1.65 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, 5.8 percent more than the three-month average.


Earnings Scorecard

About a third of the S&P 500's members are scheduled to announce results this week. Of those that reported through Oct. 21, about two-thirds surpassed analysts' estimates, beating the average of 59 percent since 1994, according to Thomson Financial. Better-than-expected results and forecasts ``will set us up for a rally here going into the end of the year,'' said Michael Viracola, co-head of equities at Adams Harkness Inc. in Boston. The S&P 500 is down 1 percent this year.

Stocks today were also supported by a decline in oil prices as Hurricane Wilma missed most of the Gulf of Mexico's production platforms. Crude oil for December delivery lost 0.5 percent to $60.32 a barrel in New York. Falling oil prices have helped investor optimism rebound in October from the lowest in 2 1/2 years, a UBS AG and Gallup Organization poll showed. For all the members of the S&P 500, earnings last quarter probably increased an average 15 percent, up from 12 percent in the second period, according to Thomson.


Bernanke's nomination led to confidence the economy can sustain growth. Bernanke, 51, currently serves as the president's chief economic adviser, a role current Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan held earlier, after spending almost three years as a Fed governor.

`Sense of Relief'

Stocks rallied on ``a sense of relief that the uncertainty is past and that they chose one of the quality, mainstream candidates,'' said Richard Hoey, chief economist and investment strategist at Dreyfus Corp. in New York, which has $160 billion in assets. U.S. Treasury notes declined amid speculation that Bernanke may be more concerned about the pace of economic growth and so would be willing to permit faster inflation. Bernanke has endorsed inflation targeting as a guide to setting rates, which some investors believe may serve as a limit on the central bank's resolve to lift interest rates.

A government report on Oct. 28 may show the economy expanded at a 3.6 percent annual rate from July through September, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. That compares with 3.3 percent in the second quarter and an average quarterly gain of 3.1 percent over the past two decades.

The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for companies with a median market value of $563 million, rose 2.2 percent to 646.60. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, the broadest measure of U.S. shares, added 20l.73, or 1.7 percent, to 11,974.85. Based on the changes in the Wilshire, the value of stocks increased by $252.2 billion.



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BT, October 15, 2005, 11.30 am (Singapore time)

October scares US investors, but how bad is it really?

NEW YORK - Investors know October is the stock market's scariest month. But this October finds them even jumpier than usual. The magnitude of the year's calamities - the tsunami, the Pakistan earthquake and Hurricane Katrina - has prompted some to prepare for disasters of almost every stripe. 'How might another influenza pandemic affect the market?' Banc of America strategist Thomas McManus wrote to clients this past week.


The declines in the first half of the month haven't made anyone calmer. The Dow Jones industrial average has fallen 281.36 points, or 2.66 per cent so far. Percentage declines in the Nasdaq composite and the Standard & Poor's 500 are even steeper: The Nasdaq has lost 4.03 per cent and the S&P, 3.44 per cent. Now that we're midway through the month, it's worth looking back at what past Octobers have brought and looking ahead to assess investors' biggest fears for the immediate future.

If investors think October has the potential for absolute misery, it's because most of the market's darkest days came in October: the crash of 1929, the Black Monday crash of 1987 and 1989's Friday the 13th mini-crash. According to 'The Stock Trader's Almanac', Oct 11 has historically been the worst trading day of the year.

But is October really that bad? The truth is that October might be best compared to a usually charming friend who gets drunk and mean only on the extra day of a leap year. Over the last 33 years, the major indexes have gained points in October more often than they've lost. Even on Oct 11, there's still a 23.8 per cent chance the market will rise, according to the Trader's Almanac. That doesn't sound half bad if you're, say, a Cleveland Indians fan. This year, Oct 11 was a ho-hum day, ending mixed, with the Dow up slightly, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down slightly.

October tends to be the month the market hits bottom and moves higher, according to Jeffrey Kleintop, chief investment strategist for PNC Advisors. Some call October 'the bear killer', since October has turned the tide in nine of 18 bear markets following World War II. 'In both 2002 and 2004, October saw a weaker stock market and declines in the index for the year, but then led into a strong rally,' he said. While October in general may not have earned its nasty reputation, this October, investors are looking at both Biblical-scale disasters and worrying economic issues. There's enough to keep everyone up at night. We culled reports from just one firm, Merrill Lynch, for just this past week. Below are highlights of Merrill's most pressing concerns:

Consumer spending
Bankruptcy lawyers are busy. Tougher bankruptcy laws go into effect on Oct 17. In the first week of October, a record 102,863 Americans filed for personal bankruptcy, according to Lundquist Consulting, which tallies weekly bankruptcy statistics. That's more than 20,000 a day on average. Compare that to the weekly average for the past four years, which is 30,000 filings. So far this year, 1.4 million Americans have declared bankruptcy, up 20 per cent over the same period last year.

Deflation
'Folks, this is still a deflationary world,' said David A Rosenberg, a Merrill Lynch economist. 'The airline industry, which is the closest to the oil price runup, is having problems raising fares.' Instead, it's cutting jobs.

The housing market
The housing market is getting softer. Inventory of existing homes, condos and new homes on the market is up. Unsold new homes have jumped to a five-year high.

The Fed
Investors have been hoping for months that the Federal Reserve would signal the end of short-term interest rate increases. Instead, notes from the Fed policy maker's Sept 20 meeting read 'further rate increases will probably be required'.
'We are now convinced the Fed it going to tighten through year-end and into 2006,' Mr Rosenberg said. Mr Kleintop's assessment of the Fed watch is 'we're all at that same point of wondering what the end is'.

Why is this so important? Because stocks rally near the end of a Fed tightening regime. 'There's never been a decline in the stock market in the 12 weeks prior to the end of a series of Fed rate hikes,' Mr Kleintop said. 'It's always been up and the average is five per cent. Everyone knows that, so they're all waiting for that. If (the Fed stops) in December, then November starts the rally.' If the Fed doesn't stop until sometime in 2006, then the market may see many more spooky days after October is over.



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U.S. Stocks Stem October Loss as Apple, Technology Shares Gain


Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks stemmed losses resulting from their worst October performance in five years amid speculation that third-quarter earnings reports may show the decline went too far. Technology companies such as Apple Computer Inc. rallied in afternoon trading, enabling the market to bounce back from losses after the government reported the biggest increase in import prices since 1990. ``The market has just been hit so hard,'' said Bart Barnett, head of equity trading at Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee. ``The bias is to trade higher.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 0.84, or 0.1 percent, to 1176.84. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.32 to 10,216.59. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 9.75, or 0.5 percent, at 2047.22 for its first gain this week, led by Apple shares. The S&P 500 has declined every day this month except one, retreating 4.2 percent this month for its worst October start since 2000, when it slumped 7.4 percent. Almost seven stocks fell for every five that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Some 1.83 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board, 20 percent more than the three-month average.

Technology Shares

Shares of Apple climbed $4.49, or 9.1 percent, to $53.74 for the best performance in the S&P 500. The company unveiled a version of the best-selling iPod digital-music player that also shows videos and television programs. The stock retreated 4.5 percent yesterday after Apple reported fourth-quarter revenue that trailed analysts' estimates.

Lam Research Corp., the maker of equipment used to build computer chips, added $3.55, or 12 percent, to $33.75 for the biggest gain in almost 15 months. The company expects profit of 34 cents to 39 cents this quarter, higher than the 31-cent estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Sales of $330 million to $350 million will also beat estimates.

A gauge of semiconductor-related stocks rallied 1.1 percent for the second-biggest gain among two dozen S&P 500 industry groups. Better-than-expected results from South Korea's Hynix Semiconductor Inc., the world's second-largest maker of memory chips, buoyed optimism about the group's earnings outlook. Texas Instruments Inc., the world's third-biggest semiconductor maker, added 79 cents to $30.89.

Profits at U.S. companies probably rose 15 percent in the third quarter as record oil prices supported earnings at energy producers including Exxon Mobil Corp. The increase would be the 13th consecutive quarter of growth of more than 10 percent, the longest such streak in at least seven years, according to estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson.



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CHICAGO (XFN-ASIA) - US Treasury prices fell Wednesday, pushing benchmark yields to territory last charted six months ago, as another round of Federal Reserve speeches cemented expectations for higher interest rates as a strike against inflation. The latest move put the benchmark note on the edge of breaking out of a yield range, at roughly 4.5 pct at the top, that has persisted for two years.

"Market participants continue to focus on the threat of inflation," said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president in fixed income with D.A. Davidson & Co. Inflation erodes the worth of fixed-income investments, which also tend to lose out to other less conservative investments in a rising rate climate.

The bond market is also wary of the Fed's policy approach and whether the central bank is a step ahead of inflation or even, whether the Fed risks an undesirable economic slowdown with rate moves that are too aggressive at a time of stinging energy bills. The closely tracked 10-year note finished US trading down 13/32 at 98 14/32, shedding around 3.75 usd per each 1,000 usd of securities at face value. The lowered price lifted the note's yield to 4.45 pct from 4.39 pct at Tuesday's close. The 30-year bond was down 28/32 at 110 20/32, yielding 4.66 pct versus 4. 61 pct. The 10-year yield, a reference for mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, was last higher when it closed at 4.5 pct on April 8.

For traders eyeing the charts, a break above 4.5 pct could bring bigger ramifications as it lies at the top of downward-trending channel for the yield. The yield has not held a solidified position above 4.5 pct for two years. The 10-year yield fell to around 3.9 pct immediately after Hurricane Katrina hit but has been rising almost without pause since.

Treasury price declines began early Wednesday, and were firmly entrenched after Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan repeated his view that US economic resiliency has helped it handle the shock of high energy prices.

Greenspan's remarks offered little to contradict the prevailing view in the bond market - that US interest rates are headed higher -- particularly after the hawkish tone of the Sept 20 Fed meeting minutes, which were released Tuesday. Short-term interest rate futures markets project a fed funds interest rate target at 4.25 pct and possibly 4.5 pct by early next year. In a speech after market hours Tuesday, Fed Governor Donald Kohn said, "inflation will still rise if central banks allow economies to run 'too hot '... and such a pickup could become self-perpetuating if it became imbedded in inflation expectations." The latest remarks echo the sentiment of a string of Fed speeches, focusing on inflation's threat after Katrina, and later, Rita damaged US energy production and caused other supply shocks in the economy. While staying clear of a direct reference to the post-Katrina economy, Greenspan did repeat that flexibility has allowed the economy, so far, "to weather reasonably well the steep rise in spot and futures prices for oil and natural gas that we have experienced over the past two years." Greenspan may take comfort over the long term, but the Fed, including its chief, apparently turned up its inflation talk at its last meeting. "Although uncertainty has increased, in the [Federal Open Market Committee's] judgment the fundamental factors influencing the longer-term path of the economy probably had not been affected by the hurricane, but the upside risks to inflation appeared to have increased," the summary of Sept 20 meeting said. "We are now convinced that the Fed is going to tighten through year-end and into 2006 -- we are raising our funds forecast to a 4.5 pct peak from 4 pct -- although we are of the view that the inflation preoccupation is overdone and hence, we are not turning bearish on long-term bonds," said David Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch.

Rosenberg said the Fed minutes themselves bolster his bond outlook. "There was a particularly bond-bullish ditty in the FOMC minutes that read 'it was observed that, after the early 1980s, the pass-through of energy prices into core inflation had been quite limited, suggesting that, in current circumstances, core inflation could stay relatively low and overall would probably drop back if inflation expectations remained contained.' "But guess what? They're not going to take any chances."

The 2-year note was unchanged at 99 18/32, yielding 4.24 pct versus 4.22 pct. Its yield remains at 2001 highs. That left the closely tracked yield relationship between the 2-year and 10-year notes wider at 0.21 percentage point from 0.17 percentage point Tuesday. The gap was as tight as 0.12 percentage point -- and risked inversion, according to some observers -- just before Hurricane Katrina hit. The flat yield curve is said to reflect expectations the economy will moderate in coming quarters; inversion, in fact, can be a harbinger of a recession, if a rare occurance.

Tony Creszenzi, chief bond market strategist with Miller Tabak & Co, says that yields on the 2-year note have dropped below the Fed's interest-rate target only five times over the last 16 years. Each time, the Fed was cutting interest rates by six months or sooner after the inversion. "Investors are loath to invest in Treasurys when they yield less than the fed-funds rate, primarily because the funds rate represents the cost of money to those who borrow money in the repo market to finance their inventories of Treasurys" a transaction common among the large Wall Street bond firms. "The current battle against the recent rise in inflation and inflation expectations is Greenspan's Alamo, with the chairman taking a last stance against a demon that he helped whip many years ago but which is threatening to return," said Crescenzi. "It will be a fight to the finish."

Greenspan retires with the wrap of the Fed's Jan 31 interest rate meeting.

Some analysts think a flat yield curve will persist and so are skeptical of bond returns. "We expect the persistently high energy costs we forecast to lead to slower economic growth and higher inflation during the fourth quarter and into 2006," said Anne Briglia, fixed-income analyst with UBS, in a quarterly research note. She pegs the Fed's rate target at 4.25 pct by year-end. "At the same time, there is evidence that investors may be ratcheting up inflation expectations, as reflected in the fact that the University of Michigan's 12-month inflation expectations survey rose to the highest level in nearly 15 years last month," said Briglia. "Investors are likely to demand higher bond yields. We therefore recommend that investors retain a modest underweight within Treasurys through the balance of the year."

The bond market briefly pared its price decline following a well-received auction of 5-year notes, but the downward trajectory resumed shortly after. The Treasury Department auctioned its 13 bln usd in new 5-year notes at a yield of 4.270 pct Wednesday. It was the highest yield offered since May 2002 and came in just under the 4.28 pct priced into "when-issued" trading just before the sale. This market allows traders to position for probable auction results ahead of time. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of overall demand for the notes, showed that a relatively solid 2.75 usd in bids was received for every 1 usd of securities sold. In-direct bidders, the category that includes closely tracked foreign central bank demand, took 45.8 pct of the notes, down from September's 55 pct, but a still respectable rate of participation, analysts said. New supply tends to weigh on the prices of notes and bonds in secondary trading. The Treasury Department will also sell 8 bln usd of 10-year inflation-protected 10-year notes on Thursday. This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www. marketwatch.com.

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US Market : 10-Oct-05


U.S. Stocks Extend October's Slide; GM and Xilinx Shares Drop

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks extended their October slump amid disappointing results from technology companies and doubts about General Motors Corp.'s future after a former unit filed for bankruptcy. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell to a five-month low as an unexpected loss at Unisys Corp., a computer consultant, and a sales shortfall at Xilinx Inc., a maker of computer chips, fueled concern that quarterly profit reports may fail to meet forecasts. ``We certainly expect earnings growth to moderate,'' said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``We're telling our clients to buy stocks that are less susceptible to an economic downturn,'' such as drugmakers.


The S&P 500 lost 8.57, or 0.7 percent, to 1187.33, closing at its lowest since May 18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 53.55, or 0.5 percent, to 10,238.76, a level not seen since May 13. Both indexes are down at least 3 percent this month.


Auto-related companies led the retreat today. The odds of a bankruptcy filing by GM tripled after Delphi Corp., the largest U.S. auto-parts maker, filed for Chapter 11 protection over the weekend, according to a Banc of America Securities analyst.


The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 11.43, or 0.6 percent, to 2078.92, bringing its October slide to 3.4 percent. More than three stocks fell today for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Some 1.64 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board, 8.7 percent more than the three-month daily average. Semiconductor-related shares lost 2.6 percent as a group.



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U.S. Stocks Have Broadest Drop in 15 Months on Slowing Growth

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled in their broadest decline in more than 15 months, triggered by evidence of slowing growth in service industries, the biggest part of the economy.


Disappointing profit results from ADC Telecommunications Inc., a maker of networking equipment, and Mercury Interactive Corp., a software developer, contributed to the slide. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index erased its gain for the year.


``We have what could be the risk of an economic slowdown,'' said Hans Olsen, who oversees $2 billion as chief investment officer at Bingham Legg Advisers LLC in Boston. The earnings announcements ``that we're going to see over the next several weeks could make for a very tough October in the U.S. stock market.''


The S&P 500 lost 18.08, or 1.5 percent, to 1196.39. The benchmark is down 1.3 percent this year. The Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 36.34, or 1.7 percent, to 2103.02. Both had their biggest one-day drop in almost six months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 123.75, or 1.2 percent, to 10,317.36.


More than 10 stocks declined for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. The ratio for all NYSE-listed securities, including preferred stock and bonds, surpassed 4-to- 1 for the first time since June 2004. Almost 1.92 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board, 29 percent more than the three- month daily average.


ISM Services


The Institute for Supply Management said its measure of financial services, retail trade and other non-manufacturing businesses expanded at the slowest pace in more than two years. The gauge, which reflects activity in 87 percent of the U.S. economy, fell to 53.3 in September from 65 in August. Economists predicted a reading of 60, according to a Bloomberg News survey. A reading above 50 indicates growth.


The institute's Oct. 3 report on manufacturing showed that section of the economy expanded faster than anticipated.


Consumers ``are being impacted by higher energy costs and higher interest rates,'' said David Spika, who helps manage $4 billion as equity strategist at Westwood Holdings Group in Dallas. ``Their spending is going down and you are seeing that reflected in the differential between the manufacturing and service sides of the economy.''


A gauge of prices paid by services companies climbed to 81.4 percent last month, the highest level since the survey began in 1997, adding to concern fuel costs are feeding inflation.



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