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Post Info TOPIC: SPH


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RE: SPH


Singapore Press Holdings (S$4.08) Target Price: S$4.90
Maintain BUY

3QFY06 results: Unexciting results, but share price at 18% discount to RNAV
A set of unexciting results. SPH’s strong 3QFY06 net profit of S$174.6m (+81% yoy) was due to an exceptional gain of S$69.1m against an exceptional loss of S$11.6m in 3QFY05. The exceptional gain arose from the write-back of impairment losses (S$70.5m) related to SPH’s prime property asset, The Paragon Shopping Mall at Orchard Road, following a recent higher-than-cost valuation by Knight Frank..
Excluding the exceptional gain, 3QFY06’s net profit was S$105.5m (-3% yoy). 3QFY06 print revenue, fell by 0.5% yoy, was disappointing. Newspaper advertising revenue contracted by 1.0%. We were surprised by the sharp fall of 7.5% in display advertising revenue, though this was cushioned by a 9.3% rise in classified advertising revenue. Display advertising revenue earlier grew by 2.3% in 1QFY06, but declined marginally by 0.8% in 2QFY06. 3QFY06 newspaper circulation revenue rose strongly by 4.4% to S$54.2m. For the first nine months of FY06, newspaper advertising revenue growth was 1.3% yoy, underpinned by strong classified advertising revenue growth of 6.9% though display advertising revenue contracted by 2.1%.

We have lowered our net profit forecasts for FY06, FY07 and FY08 net profit forecasts (excluding exceptionals) by 2%, 6% and 8% respectively to S$387.0m, S$398.0m and S$417.0m respectively.

Including the exceptional gain of S$70.5m our FY06 net profit forecast is S$456.2m. We are now assuming annual advertising revenue growth of 2% in FY06 and 3.5% in FY07 and FY08 (previously 4.5%, 6.0% and 5.0% respectively). Our target price has been lowered by 6% from S$5.20 to S$4.90, based on our revised RNAV estimate of S$4.96. We have trimmed the terminal growth assumption in our DCF calculation from 2.5% to 2.0%.

Despite the poor results, share price is at 18% discount to our RNAV estimate and should be supported by SPH’s gross dividend yield of 6.1%. Traditionally SPH’s share price always has a small rally in end-Sep and early-Oct, in the run up to the release of the company’s final results, on anticipation of the final dividend. Maintain BUY.
Key highlights of 3QFY06 results:
• Newspaper and Magazine increased marginally by 0.6% to S$237.2m. Higher circulation revenue offset lower advertising revenue.
• Property segment posted 8.3% increase in revenue to S$24.3m.
• Despite higher operating revenue, profit before investment income of S$94.5m was 9% lower than last year due to higher newsprint and other operating costs. Materials, consumables and broadcasting costs went up by S$4.1m mainly due to a 12.2% increase in newsprint costs. The increase in newsprint costs was in line with higher consumption and newsprint prices. Total operating expenses at S$173.5m was 9.6% higher

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Extracted From CS

● SPH’s 3Q operating results came below our expectation. This is
mainly due to unexpectedly weak 3Q newspaper display ad
revenue – down 7.5% YoY, versus our estimate of flat growth.
● Accordingly, we have trimmed our full-year earnings forecast and
lowered our DCF-based target price to S$4.70 (from S$4.96).
● We expect the market to react negatively to the company's
“commitment” to hold on to Paragon. Also, we maintain our view
that capital management activities would be on hold until 1HFY07
as management focuses on switching to a performance share
compensation plan.
● However, the stock’s dividend yield of 5.5% should provide good
downside support for the stock. This is based on our assumption
that SPH would maintain last year’s full-year net dividend.

● Our revised target price of S$4.70 represents 15% upside from
current levels, compared with an expected upside of 7% for the
Singapore market.
We have lowered our ratings for SPH to
NEUTRAL from Outperform.


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SPH - Lim and Tan


Extracts fm Lim and Tan Report dated 12-Jul-06, 

Sing Post As An Alternative


  • SPH’s Q3 performance is uninspiring:

    • Strip out the exceptional $69 mln gain arising from the write-back of the impairment loss for The Paragon, profit was down 9.5% to $125.55 mln.
    • The continued increase in newsprint prices was one of the contributing factors.
    • But advertising revenue, while up 14.6% quarter-on-quarter, was marginally lower than a year ago, despite the continued robust growth of the Singapore economy.

  • The Property division posted revenue growth of 8.5%, vs 0.6% for Newspaper & Magazine, and hence the recent upward revision of Paragon’s value to $1.52 bln.
  • But this in turn makes The Paragon that much more precious an asset to be sold and proceeds/profit distributed to shareholders, as they would expect! Indeed, the results accompanying statement stated clearly: the Directors are committed to holding on to The Paragon for the foreseeable future.
  • Many will no doubt want to wait for what they believe will eventually materialize, hence continuing justifying a BUY, either outright (which we do not subscribe to) or for Long Term (perhaps).
  • Indeed, if advertising revenue at SPH is not moving in tandem with economic growth, Singapore Post would appear to be an attractive alternative given the more commendable growth of its Direct Marketing business. And Sing Post’s yield is also more attractive at 5.3% net (assuming unchanged 5.5 cents for ye Mar ’07).


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SPH - Credit Suisse


Extracts fm Credit Suisse Report dated 12-Jul-06,

3Q newspaper display ad revenue unexpectedly weak; no positive catalyst for now


  • SPH’s 3Q operating results came below our expectation. This is mainly due to unexpectedly weak 3Q newspaper display ad revenue – down 7.5% YoY, versus our estimate of flat growth.
  • Accordingly, we have trimmed our full-year earnings forecast and lowered our DCF-based target price to S$4.70 (from S$4.96).
  • We expect the market to react negatively to the company's “commitment” to hold on to Paragon. Also, we maintain our view that capital management activities would be on hold until 1HFY07 as management focuses on switching to a performance share compensation plan.
  • However, the stock’s dividend yield of 5.5% should provide good downside support for the stock. This is based on our assumption that SPH would maintain last year’s full-year net dividend.
  • Our revised target price of S$4.70 represents 15% upside from current levels, compared with an expected upside of 7% for the Singapore market. We have lowered our ratings for SPH to NEUTRAL from Outperform.


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SPH - CIMB


Extracts fm CIMB Report dated 12-Jul-06,

Some Bright Spots


  • 3Q06 results were in line with consensus and our estimates. 3Q06 core net profit was S$105m (-2.6% yoy). The slight yoy decline came on the back of higher newsprint cost, which rose 12% on higher prices (US$586/MT) and consumption (typically high in 3Q). Otherwise, revenue from the core media business was flat with display (56% of ad revenue of S$510m) declining 7.5% yoy while classified (37% of ad rev) improved 9.3% yoy. 
  • Mix bag of non-media earnings. Investment income for the quarter was down 17% yoy to S$32m due to weaker market conditions and lower trading volume. The group, however, received higher dividend income from its listed investments. There was an exceptional gain of S$69m in 3Q06 relating to the write-back of impairment losses for Paragon due to strong sustained valuation. Paragon continued to return strong rental yields, contributing S$24m (+8.3% yoy) in revenue in 3Q06. 
  • Headcount increase could raise costs. Staff cost, which accounted for 41% of overall cost, declined 0.2% yoy due to a timing difference in the provision for staff variable bonus. Headcount increased to 3,583 (+4% yoy) in 3Q06 for its editorial products, outdoor and other media businesses, and could raise costs going forward. 
  • Keeping Paragon. The latest valuation for Paragon is S$1.52bn (last valuation was S$1.38bn). In its most concrete statement to date, SPH said it is interested in keeping Paragon in the foreseeable future, in light of the group’s ability to enhance rental yields.
  • Maintain Outperform and target price of S$5.40, based on sum-of-the-parts valuation. We are also maintaining our core earnings estimates. SPH offers prospective dividend yields of 6.8% and 7.6% for FY06 and FY07 respectively. Maintain Outperform on the back of attractive yields.


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SPH - DBSVickers


Extracts fm DBSVickers Report dated 12-Jul-06,

3QFY06 results within expectations. SPH reported 3Q06 results that came in within expectations, net of an S$70.5m one-time gain from the reversal of impairment loss attributed to The Paragon. Top line grew 2.2% y-o-y to S$265.7m, in line with expectations. Classified ad revenues were the only bright spot in this set of results, showing a 10% increase y-o-y to S$71.2m. However, falling display ad revenues, by 8% y-o-y to S$94.5m, negated this increase. Excluding exceptional gains, net profit dropped 4.3% y-o-y to S$105.5m, mostly due to expenses incurred by the outdoor unit, higher newsprint prices and lower investment income. As a result, operating margins also fell, from 43% to 38%, compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

Increased cost base from the outdoor media business and newsprint. Approximately S$5.8m of increased costs came from the outdoor advertising arm SPHMBO, which also generated income of c.S$4.1m. Going ahead, we do not expect this segment of the business to be a significant contributor. Newprint cost continues to be on the rise, with FY06 YTD showing an increase of 10% over FY05 to S$88m. Display ad revenues fell by 8%, as 3Q05 saw special advertising campaigns, which did not occur this year. Despite the healthy economic growth, the past two quarters have seen display ad revenues on a declining trend, which we believe is due to competition from Today.

Maintain HOLD. The focus continues to be on SPH’s dividend yield, which is relatively attractive at 5.8%, and we believe should provide support for the share price. As such, any price catalyst is only likely to be in the form of an asset sale of either its property assets or, to a lesser extent, its shareholdings in M1. Management is in no hurry to sell either Paragon or the Times Industrial Building, and is fast approaching its 3-4 year timeline announced in CY04 for any asset divestments. Maintain Hold, with a 1-year price target price of S$4.45, based on SOTP valuation.



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SPH - Q3 Results


SPH Reports Third Quarter Net Profit Of $174.6 million

Singapore, 11 July 2006 – Mainboard-listed Singapore Press Holdings Limited (SPH) today reported results for its third quarter ended 31 May 2006. Net profit improved 80.7% to $174.6 million from $96.7 million a year ago, as a result of exceptional gain of $69.1 million compared to previous year’s exceptional loss of $11.6 million.

The Group’s operating revenue registered an increase of 2.2% over the same quarter last year. Revenue for the Newspaper and Magazine operations increased 0.6% to $237.2 million, and Property segment rose 8.3% to $24.3 million. Despite higher operating revenue, profit before investment income of $94.5 million was 8.8% lower than last year due to higher newsprint and other operating costs this year.

Total operating expenses at $173.5 million was 9.6% higher. Newsprint cost rose 12.2% as a result of higher consumption and price increase. Staff cost was marginally down 0.2% due to timing difference in provision for staff variable bonus partially offset by increase due to annual salary increment and higher headcount. Total headcount as at end May 2006 was 3,583, compared to 3,448 a year ago mainly due to the launch of new editorial products and ventures into outdoor and other media businesses. Similarly, other expenses were higher as a result of costs associated with activities in outdoor and other media businesses. In addition, there was no write-back of allowance for doubtful debts as in the previous year.

Group investment income for the quarter was $31.5 million, down from $38.0 million last year. The decreases in contribution from externally-managed investments and profit on sale of internally-managed investments due to poorer market conditions and lower trading volume this year were partially offset by increase in dividend income received.

The fair value of The Paragon, determined based on a recent independent professional valuation, is $1.52 billion. This valuation, which is done on an annual basis, is required under the terms of the bank loan for The Paragon.


The exceptional gain of $69.1 million this year was mainly in relation to the write-back of impairment losses of $70.5 million for The Paragon in view of its strong sustained valuation. The gain was offset by impairment provision of $1.4 million arising from the acquisition of SPHMBO. The exceptional loss last year pertained to charges associated with the media merger.

Mr Alan Chan, Chief Executive Officer of SPH said: “The valuation of The Paragon is expected to stay healthy on the back of a sustained recovery in the property market. Together with on-going efforts to enhance rental yields, the fundamentals of The Paragon remain strong. In view of this, the Directors are committed to holding on to The Paragon for the foreseeable future.”

For the nine months ended 31 May 2006, the Group registered a net profit of $357.6 million against previous year’s $413.3 million. This year included $70.5 million of write-back of impairment losses for The Paragon while previous year included $128.5 million gain on sale of a substantial portion of the Group’s stake in Starhub Ltd.

Commenting on the outlook for the rest of the financial year, Mr Alan Chan said: “Barring unforeseen circumstances, Singapore’s economic outlook for 2006 remains healthy. Nonetheless, business and consumer sentiments remain shaped by concerns over the geopolitical and global economic environment in areas such as pressure on oil prices, rising interest rates, threats of terrorism and an avian flu pandemic. Overall, the Directors expect the recurring earnings for the current financial year to be satisfactory.”



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RE: SPH


Singapore Press Holdings Limited wishes to announce that it will release its financial results for the Third Quarter ended 31 May 2006 on Tuesday, 11 July 2006.

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SPH - Credit Suisse


Extracts fm Credit Suisse Report dated 3-Jul-06,

Display ad demand still patchy; pushing pan-Asia ambitions through outdoor sector


  • According to the CS Page Monitor, recruitment ad growth for SPH accelerated further, but demand for display ads slowed slightly in June. Despite strong economic growth and consumer sentiment in Singapore, display ad demand for SPH remained patchy. As we have highlighted before, we expect the company’ 3Q FY06 results (scheduled for 11 July) to be weak, with display ad revenue probably growing only 3% YoY.
  • Following recent initiatives to revamp and expand its businesses both domestically and overseas, SPH is keen to continue growing , especially overseas. The company will be focusing on the Internet, magazines and outdoor sectors. While we believe the company is moving in the right direction, and that the bottom-line impact of these is unlikely to be apparent in the near term.
  • SPH has an above-average net dividend yield of 5.5% (versus its five-year average of 4.6% and the market’ 3.9%). Reversion to five-year mean of 4.6% would imply a target price of S$5.00. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of S$4.96.


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RE: SPH


Extracted from BT 1 July 2006

SPH aims to be more than a print company


(SINGAPORE) It is difficult to get into overseas markets through core newspaper operations because of the way regulators restrict foreign media ownership, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) chairman Tony Tan said yesterday.
Dr Tan: Says media companies with major newspaper interests in the US and Europe are wrestling with how to incorporate the Internet into their print business

But SPH has managed to expand through magazines, outdoor advertising and the Internet, and will continue to invest to fulfil its vision of being 'much more than a print company operating largely in Singapore', he said.

Dr Tan said the challenge facing SPH is the same one that is facing all media companies today, that is, 'the converging media landscape where readers can access news and information whenever and wherever they like on various platforms like the Internet and the ubiquitous mobile devices'.

On an overseas delegation to media companies with major newspaper interests in the US and Europe earlier this month, 'we found all these companies wrestling with how to incorporate the Internet into their print business, with some in various phases of starting online newspapers and other services', he said.

SPH itself has launched several initiatives in the Internet arena in recent months, Dr Tan said.

For example, it expanded into online recruiting advertising with ST701, and also launched STOMP, a website aimed at encouraging interactivity with readers of The Straits Times, through mobile devices and the Internet.

It has also made SPH news available on mobile phones, PDAs and Blackberry devices for between $3 and $5 a month.

Meanwhile, SPH plans to replicate successful magazine titles in Singapore, such as Her World, Shape, The Peak, Men's Health and Maxim, in other countries around the region.

Her World is already found in Indonesia, Malaysia, China and Thailand, Dr Tan noted.

The group also aims to be a major pan-Asian outdoor advertiser, which Dr Tan said is a 'natural extension' of the core print business as SPH 'can leverage on its marketing relationship with agencies and clients to sell outdoor advertising'.

SPH owns SPH MediaBoxOffice, as well as 35 per cent of Tom Outdoor Media Group, a large outdoor advertiser in China.

Dr Tan was speaking at the SPH scholarship presentation ceremony.

Ten recipients - including four overseas award recipients and six local award recipients - were selected this year, from a total of 539 applicants.

The journalists-to-be will study a range of subjects, including law, accountancy, biology and life sciences, international relations and English literature.

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BT, Published June 28, 2006

No decision yet on sale of Paragon: SPH

SINGAPORE Press Holdings (SPH) said yesterday it had not reached a decision on the sale of its Paragon shopping mall, one of Singapore's swankiest and worth $1.52 billion, after a 10 per cent rise in the mall's value. SPH, South-east Asia's largest media group, said last December it may wait for real estate prices to rise further before it sells the mall. 'The response has always been that it could be sold when the price is right but this position has not been reached yet,' an SPH spokesman said yesterday.

The company said the mall was worth 10 per cent more than the $1.38 billion announced last December. It disclosed yesterday that Knight Frank valued the mall at $1.52 billion.

SPH's chief executive officer Alan Chan said last December that Paragon was earning a return of 10 per cent annually and that the value of the mall on Orchard Road had risen by 15 per cent over the last two years.

Property values along Orchard Road, which is undergoing a much-needed face-lift, may rise further after the government sold an undeveloped prime site for $1.38 billion.

Mr Chan said Paragon could be sold to investors as a real estate investment trust, although SPH was considering several options.


SPH is the leading media company in Singapore. It publishes more than 10 newspapers in the four official languages and more than 80 magazine titles. - Reuters



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SPH - DBS


Extracts fm DBS Report dated 24-Apr-06,

SPH’s March AdEx flat despite overall market growth. AC Nielsen’s latest AdEx figures suggest that SPH’s display ad revenues for March fell 0.5% y-o-y. This was despite Singapore’s overall March AdEx growing 2.2%, as Today continued to gain market share by registering an 18% yo-y growth in its AdEx revenue. In March 2006, Today’s share of the newspaper AdEx pie in Singapore grew to a record 16.6%. YTD, AC Nielsen’s numbers suggest that SPH’s AdEx revenues have fallen by 1.7% y-o-y, against 13.2% growth for Today.

Data reaffirms expectation of lackluster growth for SPH’s core business. The latest set of AdEx numbers underline our view that SPH is suffering from competition from Today (in which it holds a 40% stake). Although SPH’s actual numbers typically exceed AC Nielsen’s estimates, we can only expect mid-single digit growth for SPH for its core newspaper business at best. Hence, we are maintaining our estimates.

Maintain Hold. Our sum-of-parts valuation suggests a fair value of S$4.42, which factors in S$3.00 for the core print business, S$1.14 for the property assets, and S$0.67 for the investment fund, less debt of S$0.39. We maintain our Hold recommendation, with a 1-year price target of S$4.42. SPH is attractive for risk-averse investors as it offers attractive net yield of more than 5.5%.



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SPH - UBS


Extracts fm UBS Report dated 19-Apr-06,

Lacks leverage

Competition and higher costs
While we expect Singapore Press Holdings’ (SPH) advertising revenue to benefit from the current economic cycle, the magnitude of the multiplier effect should be more modest because of competition from other media platforms. Compounding this is rising newsprint costs, which means that leverage into an expanding economy is further reduced.

Divestment not imminent
We estimate that SPH’s investment properties could command an extra S$0.30 per share in valuation in a reflationary environment; however, we do not expect any divestments in the near term and therefore no share buybacks or special dividends.

Nice yield, but not spectacular
A 95% payout of core earnings in recent years has meant an attractive yield, but in the current rising interest rate environment, we think a 5% net yield is unlikely to be an attractive catalyst for stock performance.

Valuation: Price target of S$4.90
The stock trades at 17.8x our 2006 estimate with a net dividend yield of 5%. Our price target is S$4.90, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation with S$0.85 for its non-core business and DCF for its core business. We maintain our Neutral 1 rating as we think the stock is fairly valued and lacks a catalyst for an outperformance.



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SPH - CitiGroup


Extracts fm CitiGrp report dated 13-Apr-06,

2Q results: Profits down 12% in line with expectations


  • We maintain our Buy, Low Risk rating on SPH as we see the group as a laggard reflation play with attractive valuations (discount to RNAV of S$5.62) and supported by a yield of 6%.
  • SPH reported net profit of S$85m for the 2Q, in line with our expectations (49% of full-year forecast). Profit was lower due to a higher base last year aided by one-off investment gains.
  • The 0.5% decline in display ad revenues was disappointing, but this was attributed to a loss of advertising opportunities due to the longer festive period in the 2Q. Advertising from the retail and durable segments were strong while property advertising was somewhat subdued due to fewer project launches in the quarter.
  • The weak display revenue was cushioned by stronger than expected classified and recruitment ad revenues, which rose 9% for the quarter.
  • Costs were well contained with the 9% rise in newsprint costs well within expectations. Wage costs were also well contained rising only 1% in the 2Q.
  • A dividend of 7 cents was declared (vs. 3 cents and 4 cents special dividends). Management expects ad revenues to progress “on the back of continued optimism in the economy” but highlighted the risk of oil prices and external threats.


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SPH - Lim and Tan


Extracts fm Lim and Tan Report dated 13-Apr-06, 

Another Yawn


  • SPH’ results for Q2 ended Feb’06 are uninspiring:

    • Reported net profit fell 11.9% to $84.56 mln. (Up 0.7% to $83.1 mln before investment income and exceptional items.)
    • Best performance came from the property division, with rental largely from The Paragon up 11.5% to $25.0 mln.
    • Investment income fell to $19.52 mln from $45.26 mln, partly because of the weak US$, which affected externally managed investments.
    • Newspaper business did alright with advertising rising 4.3%, benefiting from a stronger economy.
    • Operating costs rose because of higher newsprint prices.

  • Dividend is maintained at 7 cents net per share.
  • Balance sheet remains strong, with:

    • cash of $121.99 mln;
    • short term investments of $564.95 mln;
    • long-term investments of $418.43 mln; and
    • borrowings of $631.78 mln.

  • As for outlook, management warns of “high oil prices, avian flu, terrorism threats”.

COMMENTS


  1. As we had recently commented, the various announced initiatives (stake in Tom Outdoor Media, China; a new Chinese morning freesheet, and the launch of ST701 on-line classified advertising) are not significant enough to arrest the underperformance of the stock relative to the general market.
  2. And, we maintain to merit a more positive recommendation than a Long Term Buy, other initiatives need to be considered:

    • securitization / sale of The Paragon;
    • commitment to a clear and more generous dividend policy.


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SPH - CIMB


Extracts fm CIMB Report dated 13-Apr-06,

Patience Pays


  • 1H06 results were in line with consensus and our estimates. 1H06 net profit was S$183m (-2.8% yoy). The slight decline came on the back of higher newsprint and absence of exceptional gains. Furthermore, investment income was significantly lower at S$19.5m in 2Q06 against the S$45m in 2Q05. Besides unfavourable comparison to a high base (boosted by sale of investments and other gains), 2Q06’s investment income was also partly affected by the weaker US$ that dampened contribution from externally managed investments in 1H06. 
  • Operating performance should improve. We believe the group has good potential of seeing advertising revenue maintaining its growth momentum on the back of continued favourable economic conditions and sentiment in Singapore. 
  • Cost pressures linger but not alarming. Newsprint average charge-out price was US$569/tonne in 1Q06, and it crept up marginally to US$573/tonne in 2Q06. This is not a cause for concern, as we have already assumed a more conservative newsprint average charge-out price of US$625/tonne for FY06. The group is also negotiating for newsprints inventories till end of FY06. Staff cost remained high, representing 42% of the group’s total cost components despite a slight 0.7% yoy decline. Going forward, headcount would be reduced, though pressure of salary increase would still prevail. 
  • Dividends intact. The group declared an interim net DPS (on tax-exempt 1-tier basis) of 7cts per share, in line with our full-year assumption of 28cts DPS. This translates into more than 100% payout, which is not excessive, as we believe that the group’s growth strategy has little needs for retention of earnings. Also, SPH has a steady track record of rewarding its shareholders well. 
  • Maintain Outperform and target price of S$5.40, based on sum-of-the-parts valuation. We are also maintaining our forward earnings estimates. Dividend stream translates to attractive dividend yields of 6.1% and 7.0% for FY06 and FY07 respectively, and we believe that should provide support to the share price.


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SPH - OCBC


Extracts fm OCBC dated 13-Apr-06,

Still a yield play

A subdued set of 2Q results. Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) yesterday reported a set of modest results for 2QFY06. Revenue grew 2.1% YoY to S$241.7m in 2QFY06, with core operating income rising just 0.7% YoY to S$83.1m. Net income declined 11.9% YoY to S$84.6m, due to the absence of disposal gains in the current quarter. However, core operating income for 1HFY06 saw a decent gain of 8.4% YoY to S$186m, as tight controls on operating costs offset rising newsprint prices. Newsprint charge-out price saw a sharp 11.5% YoY rise to US$573/MT in 1HFY06, which was offset by lower staff costs and savings from the cessation of broadcasting operations. Net investment income plunged 80.3% YoY to S$39.0m in 1HFY06, due to a weaker US$ and higher interest rates. Annualizing the figure, this implies that investment returns came in at about 7.4% for its investment portfolio of S$1.1b (42.7% in equities, 35.0% externally managed, 11.3% in deposits, and 11.1% bonds).

Riding on positive domestic outlook. SPH’s earnings growth this year is well supported by healthy economic growth of 4-6% (we expect it should hit the top end of the range) and robust consumer spending from the S$2.6b Progress Package. Cash payments from the Progress Package range from S$200 to S$800 per person, and the impact on SPH is likely to be felt in 2HFY06. Management however was reticent about a timeframe for the disposal of non-core assets, noting the 10% equity returns from Paragon.

An attractive yield play with upside from non-core assets. With 1HFY06 earnings coming in at S$183m on the back of S$505m revenue, our full year earnings forecast of S$387m should remain on track. We continue to maintain our fair value of S$5.15, based on sum-of-the-parts valuation metric, with core operations valued at S$4.30. SPH declared an interim dividend (one-tier tax exempt) of 7 cents. While the windfall from non-core asset disposals may take some time to materialize, SPH remains an attractive yield play with estimated net dividend yields of 6% in FY06 and FY07. Our rating for SPH stays as a BUY for its dividend yield and the potential upside from the divestment of its non-core assets.



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SPH - Q206 Results


Extracts fm SGX,

SPH reports Second Quarter Net Profit of $84.6 million.

SINGAPORE, 12 April 2006 – Mainboard-listed Singapore Press Holdings Limited (SPH) today reported results for its second quarter ended 28 February 2006. Despite higher newsprint and other operating costs this year, profit before investment income of $83.1 million was 0.7% higher than last year. Net profit declined 11.9% to $84.6 million from $96.0 million a year ago, as a result of lower investment income compared to previous year.

The growth momentum in the economy continued to benefit the Group’s Newspaper, Magazine and Property segments as operating revenue came in higher over the same quarter last year. Revenue for the Newspaper and Magazine operations increased 3.2% to $209.7 million, and Property segment rose 11.5% to $25.0 million. Including the effect of SPH MediaWorks’ cessation of operations in January 2005, the growth in Group’s operating revenue for the quarter to $239.9 million was a more moderate 2.1%.

Total operating expenses at $158.6 million was 2.8% higher. Newsprint cost rose 10.7% as a result of higher prices. Staff cost was marginally up 0.6%. Total headcount as at end February 2006 was 3,472, compared to 3,461 a year ago. Other expenses were higher in line with increased business activity. In addition, there was no write-back of provisions as in the previous year. Cost savings from the cessation of SPH MediaWorks’ operations partially offset the increase in expenses.

Group investment income for the quarter was $19.5 million, down from $45.3 million last year. Last year’s results included higher profits on sale of  investments and income arising from capital reduction of an investee company. In addition, contribution from externally-managed investments was lower this year with the weakening of the US dollar.

There were no exceptional items this year as compared to last year which included one-off charges associated with the media merger.

For the half-year ended 28 February 2006, the Group registered a net profit of $183.0 million against previous year’s $316.7 million. The latter included $128.5 million gain on sale of a substantial portion of the Group’s stake in Starhub Ltd.

Commenting on the outlook for the second half of the financial year, Mr Alan Chan, Chief Executive Officer of SPH said: “The Group’s advertising revenue is expected to maintain its growth momentum on the back of continued optimism in the economy. Nonetheless, there remain downside risks such as pressure on oil prices, threats of terrorism and an outbreak of avian flu, which could have negative impact on consumer and business sentiments. Overall, the Directors expect the recurring earnings for the second half of the financial year to be satisfactory.”

The Directors of SPH have declared an interim net dividend of 7 cents per share which will be paid on 16 May 2006. These dividends are on tax-exempt 1-tier basis.



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SPH


BT, March 28, 2006, 6.47 pm (Singapore time)
SPH takes 35% stake in billboard network

SINGAPORE Press Holdings (SPH) will take a 35 per cent stake in the billboard unit of TOM Group Ltd, a publishing, advertising and Internet company controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing.

SPH and TOM jointly announced a strategic partnership in which SPH will invest US$26 million in TOM Outdoor Media Group (OMG) at an implied value of approximately US$105 million, which includes an existing shareholder loan to OMG of US$30.8 million from TOM. TOM will maintain a 65 per cent stake in OMG.

The partnership enables TOM and SPH to leverage their respective strengths and add value to OMG's business, said SPH. OMG operates a diverse network of advertising billboards and unipoles in China, complemented by street furniture and transport advertising. It owns a billboard network of about 300,000 sq-m spanning over 60 mainland cities, and has 16 subsidiaries providing comprehensive nationwide advertising solutions. -- BT



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SPH - OCBC


Extracts fm OCBC Report dated 14-Mar-06,

A move to boost readership

Free Chinese language newspaper. Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) announced last week that it will be launching Singapore’s first free Chinese morning newspaper on 1 June. This is an effort to revive circulation of its mainstream Chinese morning daily Zaobao, which has been declining on a YoY basis since late 2002. The latest development came after SPH has received feedback from the market testing of the morning edition of Shin Min Daily News in August last year. The format for the free sheet is set in a quick and light reading, written in contemporary, easy-to-ready Chinese, and available daily from Tuesday to Saturday at MRT stations, offices, and tertiary institutions.

Costs should be better contained. Our check with management revealed details such as name, number of pages, quantity, etc, has yet to be finalized. We understand that a preview launch may occur sometime in late May. Unlike SPH’s previous foray into free newspaper, costs of this project are expected to be kept low, as the free paper will ride on existing infrastructure such as news production, printing, and distribution. Production crew such as reporters will be drawn on existing staff pool, while younger reporters will also be hired. In addition, this project’s scale is likely to be smaller and it also helps that SPH dominates the Chinese-language newspaper space. Its previous free newspaper project Streats, which was launched in Sep 2000 to counter the competition from Today (which came out in Nov 2000), saw losses exceeding S$5m per year in FY02 and FY03.

SPH remains a BUY. We anticipate minimal impact on our net earnings forecasts from the free newspaper, and continue to maintain our fair value of S$5.15. This is based on our sum-of-the-parts valuation metric, with core operations valued at S$4.29 and non-core assets at 86 cents. As mentioned in our report “A Generous Budget for the Masses” on 20 Feb, SPH is one of the beneficiaries from the recent FY06 budget given its exposure to domestic demand. SPH stays as a BUY for the strengthening of domestic spending, expected net dividend yield of 4.6% and potential upside from its divestment of non-core assets.



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SPH


BT, Published March 9, 2006
 
SPH launches free Chinese newspaper
Paper will be available from Tuesday to Saturday, starting June 1

(SINGAPORE) Media group Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) is launching a free Chinese morning newspaper - Singapore's first - on June 1.

The paper, to be available daily from Tuesday to Saturday, will be 'light, eye-pleasing and easy to read'. It will be distributed to MRT stations, offices, tertiary institutions and selected households and shopping centres. Its name will be unveiled when it is officially launched.  The contemporary, informative and entertaining paper will have a high degree of reader participation via news alerts, story and picture contributions as well as opinion pieces.

SPH chairman Tony Tan said the paper will complement the group's stable of highly regarded Chinese newspapers.

'Zaobao is a Chinese newspaper of considerable reputation and international recognition whilst SPH's two evening newspapers, Lianhe Wanbao and Shin Min Daily News, cater to the needs of a sizeable readership with interests in lifestyle and human-interest stories,' Dr Tan said.  'However, we recognise that the readers' tastes and needs evolve with changing lifestyle, trends and command of the language. Thus, to cater to our wide spectrum of readers, SPH aims to provide a full suite of Chinese newspaper products across different time-belts, with each offering a fulfilling reading experience and unique perspective on events happening around them, using language ideally suited for the audience,' Dr Tan added. He said the free paper would fill a gap for a quick and light read in the morning. SPH said it will be written in 'contemporary, easy-to-read Chinese which even younger readers with a CL2 background will find interesting and absorbing'.

SPH chief executive Alan Chan said the group is ever conscious of the need to ensure that its readers' expectations are met, and will continually improve its newspapers - including Lianhe Zaobao - to meet these expectations. 'We will continuously develop Zaobao in ways that our readers want us to, but without compromising its in-depth and analytical coverage,' said Mr Chan. He said the free paper is also in line with the group's continuing efforts to nurture local journalistic talent. 'To prepare for this newspaper, we will not just be hiring fresh talent, we will also be offering more places in the SPH Chinese Journalism Scholarship to meet our long term needs,' said Mr Chan.

To be led by editor Goh Sin Teck, 42, and associate editor Chua Chim Kang, 40, the free newspaper will have a team of journalists who are in their 20s and 30s.

Responding to press queries, SPH said the free paper will not require significant investments as SPH will be leveraging on its existing infrastructure and the resources of its current stable of newspapers. 'There will be operational expenses for newsprint and distribution, and some additional costs from hiring more journalists,' said SPH.

The launch is not expected to have a material impact on the earnings and net tangible assets per share of SPH for its current financial year ending Aug 31.
 



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SPH - Merrill Lynch


Extracts fm Merrill Lynch Report dated 17-Feb-06,

Overly concerned about competition


Reinstating coverage of SPH with Buy rating
Our sum-of-the-parts price objective of S$4.90 would imply a return of 19% in a 12-month period, including a 5.2% dividend yield. We see SPH as a laggard play, as its price has underperformed the Singapore market by 14% in the past year.

Upside surprise of GDP growth fuels stronger ad spending
A broader ad market recovery would be supported by robust nominal GDP growth in 2006 (MLE: 8.8%; consensus: 6-7%). We see SPH as the main beneficiary of ad spending increases in finance, property and retail, and project ad revenue growth of 5.7% in FY06 (7% excluding Streats). Rising ad demand and resumption of its monopoly position has allowed SPH to dictate ad rate hikes.

Market overly concerned about competition
TV no longer looks excessively cheap versus newspapers, as TV ad rates have reverted to previous levels. During FY02-04, TV rates were depressed because of MediaCorp’s pre-emptive pricing strategy. We do not believe the tabloid Today and the Internet will significantly threaten SPH’s print franchise in the near term.

Special returns from divestment of non-core assets
In FY01-05, the group paid back S$1.9bn in cash to shareholders. We see the possibility of further special cash returns from (1) its strong FCF; (2) divestment of other non-core assets. Times Industrial Building, the 14% M1 stake and Paragon, if sold, would free up cash equivalent to a 20% dividend yield, by our estimates.

Investment risks
With limited growth prospects domestically, overseas or cross-media investment could present execution risks (previous TV broadcasting ventures). Longer term, we also flag the loss of future earnings streams if SPH sells its non-core assets.



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SPH - CSFB



Extracts fm CSFB Report date 20-Feb-06, 

Budget Surplus

- The Singapore FY06/07 budget is expected to boost GDP growth and consumer sentiments and spending and we believe that SPH is a beneficiary. 

- Also, the move to allow tax deduction to share-based compensation through treasury shares should encourage the company to start buying back shares as well as boost earnings.

- Largely on the back of higher ad revenue forecast, we have raised our FY06 and FY07 earnings forecast by 4%. We have also raised our sum-of-the-parts based target price by 7% to S$5.10. This represents 18% upside from current levels.

- Plus, revaluing Paragon based on recent transactions of comparable assets could raise our target price to S$5.31.

- At 16.8x FY06E earnings, the stock is at the low end of its historical PE range. Even without any additional cash distribution, the stock has an attractive dividend yield of 5.3%.

- Hence, we are upgrading our rating to OUTPEFORM (from Neutral) with a target price of S$5.10.



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RE: SPH


Reported by BT 4Feb, in a SPH loh hei session, Tony Tan mentioned that the Singapore markets future looks bleak. Expansion plans are a definate thing, especially China.

SPH so far has distributed "Her World" in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and China.
It has acquired Blu Inc, invested in Traffic Corner Publishing.

We could see some major corporate action from SPH in the coming months.
Or will the expansion plans be slow and conservative ?

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SPH - UOBKayHian


Extracts fm UOB KayHian Report dated 26-Jan-06,

Advertising Revenue - Positive Trend in Page-Count Figures

Positive trend in page-count figures. In early-Dec 05, we highlighted a positive sign in November's advertising spending. Saturday issues of The Straits Times, the dominant newspaper in Singapore, were getting thicker with 250+ pages. This was a high page-count compared to the usual 220-230 pages. The high page-count has continued into December and January. If this trend continues, advertising revenue (AR) growth could be as high as 10% instead of the weak 2% reported in SPH's 1QFY06 or our forecast of 5% for FY06, FY07 and FY08. At this juncture, we are maintaining our earnings forecasts until we see a longer positive trend.

ACNielsen has under-estimated SPH's advertising revenue growth. Most analysts track ACNielsen data as a guide to SPH's AR growth. ACNielsen data has been understating SPH's growth. ACNielsen data had implied a contraction of 4.6% in 4QFY05 and 3.8% in 1QFY06. SPH's AR actually grew by 1.5% and 2.2% respectively. ACNielsen does not capture SPH's complete AR as certain ads are not included in its counts.

Growth momentum will be more obvious from 2QFY06 onwards. Apart from rising advertising spending, SPH's AR will be compared to a base without Streats (from Jan 05 onwards). Hence, actual AR growth will be higher. We believe newsflow on SPH will increasingly become more positive. Traditionally, SPH's share price has a strong relationship to its AR growth (Figure 3).

Current share price weakness presents a good buying opportunity, as it is at the bottom of its last one-year trading range of S$4.20-5.00. The stock also offers a high net dividend yield of 4.7% to 5.0%. Dividend yield in FY06 could be higher if SPH is successful in selling the Times Industrial Building which management said has received offers and are currently being evaluated. Maintain BUY.



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SPH : CIMB


Extracts fm CIMB Report dated 13-Jan-06,

Good yield play


  • 1Q06 results were in line with consensus and our full-year estimates. However, results were below our quarterly expectations (we were expecting 1Q to contribute 30% to our full-year forecast) given our optimistic adex assumptions. Excluding a one-time gain of S$129m from StarHub (STH SP, S$2.05, NR), core net profit for 1Q06 improved a marginal 6.7% yoy.

  • Operating performance improved on the back of favourable economic conditions and sentiment in Singapore. The cessation of SPH MediaWorks dragged group operating revenue down to S$261m (-1.6% yoy) in 1Q06. However, we believe the group will be in a better shape to consolidate its market position as a pure newspaper and media giant, even without the contribution of Streats and MediaWorks. 

  • Newsprint prices have yet to surge. Concerns that newsprint prices would peak at US$620/tonne at end-05 before levelling off at US$600/tonne were overdone, as they only increased by 7% yoy to US$569/tonne in 1Q06. 

  • Maintain Outperform and target price of S$5.40, based on sum-of-the-parts valuation. We are also maintaining our FY06 earnings forecast of S$391.7m despite the weaker-than-expected 1Q06 as we have raised our adex growth forecast by 1% for the full year, in line with our new GDP growth expectations for Singapore (7%, up from 5%). Attractive dividend yields of 6.4% and 7.3% for FY06 and FY07 respectively should provide support to the share price.


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SPH : OCBC


Extracts fm OCBC Report dated 13-Jan-06,

Core earnings edged higher


  • Core operations strengthened further. Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) yesterday reported a set of encouraging results at the core level for 1Q06, as the Group continued to benefit from the media merger in 2004 and strong economic growth especially in the second half of 2005. Operating margins also improved significantly compared to a year ago. Operating revenue rose 2.2% YoY to S$235.3m in 1Q06, while operating profits before investment income jumped 15.5% YoY to S$103m. Though net profit saw a significant 55.4% YoY decline to S$98.5m, it is slightly ahead of our expectation of S$97m. Excluding the S$128.5m gain from the disposal of StarHub in 1Q05, net profit actually rose 6.6% YoY.

  • Enjoying the fruits of rationalization. Print ad revenue rose 3.1% YoY to S$178.8m as ex-Streats ad revenue grew at a stronger pace than in 1Q05, with display ad gaining 6.7% YoY vs. 1.3% YoY in 1Q05. On the cost side, higher newsprint cost was offset by the cessation of TV broadcasting business, driving overall material and consumables costs down by 31% YoY. As a result, operating margins improved strongly to 39% in 1Q06 compared to 34% in 1Q05 and was marginally ahead compared to 38% in FY05.

  • Pricing power improving. Overall, the results were heartening and the outlook for SPH remains positive as the domestic economy is set to expand at a steady pace in 2006. This allows for more pricing power with new ad rate increases going into effect from January 2006 (for weekend Straits Times and Sunday Times) and from 1 Nov 2005 for the two Chinese evening dailies. Key events ahead (such as the Asian Aerospace, World Cup soccer finals and IMF/World Bank meetings) and improving domestic consumer sentiment are expected to be the key drivers for circulations and ad revenues.

  • Recent price weakness is excessive. As for valuation, we continue to have a fair value of S$5.15 for SPH based on sum-of-the-parts, with core operations valued at S$4.28 and non-core assets at 87 cents. Given the positive outlook, potential price upside and good dividend yield, we view the recent weakness in SPH’s share price as excessive. Maintain BUY.


-- Edited by KK at 23:52, 2006-01-16

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SPH - DBSVickers


Extracts fm DBSVickers Report dated 13-Jan-06,

Unexciting results

1QFY06 earnings of S$98.4m exceeded our expectations slightly. Despite Newspaper & Magazine PBT falling by 4% y-o-y due to higher newsprint costs, the Group managed to post 15.5% higher profit before investment income compared to 1QFY05, due to savings from the cessation of MediaWorks. We reiterate our view that core earnings growth outlook for SPH remains modest, as we expect only mid single-digit growth for the Group’s newspaper business. We maintain our HOLD call, with a target price of S$4.44


  • 1QFY06 net earnings grew 6.7% y-o-y if Starhub sale in 1Q05 is excluded. 1QFY06 net earnings of S$98.4m, was 55.4% weaker y-o-y primarily due to the S$128.5m gain last year when SPH sold most of its stake in Starhub. The Group’s investment income of S$19.5m was higher than we expected and we have adjusted our earnings to reflect a higher yield on its investment portfolio. We maintain our forecasts for the newspaper and property segments.

  • Modest outlook for SPH’s core newspaper business. With our economics team expecting 2006 GDP growth at 5.3% for Singapore, we expect SPH’s newspaper revenue growth to be in the mid single digits. We also expect improved operating performance from SPH as it should start to enjoy the full benefit of having rationalized its TV and free newspaper operations. Newsprint costs however, continue to climb and will affect the Group’s newspaper profits, as we saw in the latest quarter.

  • Maintain HOLD, TP S$4.44. This is based on sum-of-parts valuation, which can be broken down into S$3.05 for the core Newspaper business (12x FY07 EV/EBITDA for Newspaper earnings), S$1.10 for SPH’s properties and S$0.68 for the Group’s cash and investment holdings, less debt of c. S$0.39. SPH is attractive for risk-averse investors as it offers attractive net yield of 5.7%.


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SPH - Kim Eng


Extracts fm Kim Eng Report dated 13-Jan-06,

Patience pays


  • Operating results were in line with our expectation. Net profit for the quarter of $98.4m accounted for 24% of our full-year forecast of $418m. Consensus estimate for full-year net profit stood at $420m. Operating profit excluding exceptionals, grew 15.5%yoy to $103m as operating margin improved to pre-media liberalisation level of 39% from 33.6% a year ago, thanks to the cessation of it TV operations.

  • Modest growth in newspaper advertising revenue was expected. Newspaper advertising revenue edged up 2.2%yoy to $165.6m partly due to cessation of Streats since Jan 2005. Excluding the impact of Streats, ad revenue would have grown by 5%yoy, in line with our assumption of 5% increase for the full-year.

  • In familiar turf. Following the rationalisation of the media industry with SPH effectively exiting the loss-making TV business and taking a 40% stake in its only print media competitor, TODAY, we expect SPH to power up on its monopolistic position. In addition, key cost components such as newsprint and staff costs are well-managed. Operating leverage will boost earnings as advertising demand grow in tandem with the economy.

  • Cash pile is reaching ‘embarrassing’ level. With strong free cash flow from its newspaper operation and rental income from the Paragon retail mall, the group’s investment portfolio has reached $1.3b ($0.82/share) as at Nov 2005. The cash hoard could be a major drag on balance sheet efficiency. Hence, we expect capital management exercise in the pipeline

  • The time is now. We are upgrading the stock to a Buy as the correction in share price following the disappointing dividend payout last year, has brought valuations back to attractive levels with implied core earnings multiple at 13.7x for FY06 and dividend yield of 5.8%.


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SPH



Extracts fm SGX Announcements,

SPH reports a 15.5% increase in Profit before Investment Income for the quarter.


SINGAPORE, 12 January 2006 – Mainboard-listed Singapore Press Holdings Limited (“SPH”) today reported its results for the first quarter ended 30 November 2005. Profit before investment income, which represents the recurring earnings of the media and property businesses, rose 15.5% to $103.0 million from a year ago. Net profit was $98.4 million compared to $220.7 million in the same quarter of the previous financial year which included investment income of $128.5 million from the disposal of a substantial portion of the Group’s interest in StarHub Limited.

With positive business and consumer sentiments, boosted by the continued growth in the economy, operating revenue for the Newspaper, Magazine and Property segments registered year-on-year growth. Despite the cessation of the free newspaper, Streats, with effect from January 2005, revenue for the Newspaper and Magazine segment was up 2.2% to $235.3 million. Property segment saw operating revenues increase 13.3% to $24.0 million. Overall, total Group operating revenue for the quarter dropped 1.6% to $261.2 million consequent to the cessation of SPH MediaWorks’ operations in January 2005.

Total operating expenses fell 10.2% to $160.5 million, largely attributable to cost savings with the cessation of SPH MediaWorks’ operations. Newsprint cost was up 7.2% because of higher prices, while total staff costs was 2.0% lower. The Group’s headcount fell to 3,471 at end of November 2005 from 3,816 a year ago. Group investment income was $19.5 million from $152.7 million last year which included the gain from the disposal of a substantial portion of the Group’s stake in StarHub.

Commenting on the outlook for the rest of the financial year, Mr Alan Chan, Chief Executive Officer of SPH said: “The positive sentiment over the economic growth momentum in Singapore will continue to have a favourable impact on the Group’s advertising revenue in the near term. However, persistent global concerns such as pressure on oil prices and interest rates, and risk of avian flu pandemic might have a dampening effect on the pace of growth in the Singapore economy in the medium term. Overall, the Directors expect the Group’s recurring earnings for the current financial year to be satisfactory.”



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